Marlins vs. Phillies Prediction

MLB Predictions: Will Marlins pull off upset vs. Struggling Phillies? 4/5/18

Will the Miami Marlins pull off an upset this afternoon when they visit the struggling Philadelphia Phillies at 3:05 p.m. ET?

Game Snapshot

(953) Miami Marlins vs. (954) Philadelphia Phillies

Thursday, April 5, 2018

TV: N/A, 3:05 p.m. ET

Likely Pitching Matchup: Caleb Smith vs. Nicholas Pivetta

CURRENT ODDS

According to oddsmakers from online sports book YouWager, the Phillies are -147 money line favorites to beat the Marlins, who have +133 money line odds to pull off the upset tonight. The total sits at 8.5 runs.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Phillies opened as -160 moneyline favorites but their line dropped to -147, while the Marlins’ odds have climbed from +135 up to +133. The total, meanwhile, hit the board at 9 but was bet down to 8.5.

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PUBLIC BETTING INFORMATION

As of this writing, 62% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Phillies to beat the Marlins on the money line. Meanwhile, 52% of the betting tickets are on the over.

OUR PREDICTION

Smith is making just his fourth career major league start but he pitched well in his season opener and if he can keep the ball on the ground today, he’ll give the Marlins an opportunity to win. On the other side, Pivetta has shown strikeout upside but he owns a high walk rate, a low ground ball rate, and allows a ton of hard contact. I’m not going to back a Phillies team with a suspect starter and a weak offense. Miami isn’t any great shakes either, but the Marlins offer too much value for bettors in this divisional matchup. The Marlins are 6-1 in their last seven games versus National League East opponents and have won eight of their last 11 games versus right-handed starters.

 

THURSDAY MLB PREDICTION: MIAMI MARLINS +133

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