Cubs vs. Reds Prediction

MLB Predictions: Should Bettors Fade Cubs' Jon Lester vs. Reds? 4/3/18

Jon Lester has dominated the Reds since arriving in Chicago but bettors could profit by fading the Cubs' starter tonight in Cincinnati.

Game Snapshot

(951) Chicago Cubs at (952) Cincinnati Reds

Tuesday, April 3, 2018

TV: N/A, 6:40 p.m. ET

Likely Pitching Matchup: Jon Lester vs. Cody Reed

CURRENT ODDS

According to oddsmakers from online sports book YouWager, the Cubs are -172 money line favorites to beat the Reds, who have +155 money line odds to pull off the upset tonight. The total sits at 9 runs.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Cubs opened as -190 money line favorites but their odds dropped to -172 at the majority of online sportsbooks. The Reds, meanwhile, hit the board as a +160 money line underdog but their odds dropped to +155. The total remains at 9 runs after opening at that same number.

Bet Tonight's MLB Games

PUBLIC BETTING INFORMATION

As of this writing, 79% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Cubs to beat the Reds. Meanwhile, 57% of the betting tickets are on the over.

OUR PREDICTION

As previously mentioned, Lester has dominated the Reds since signing with the Cubs. He's 11-2 on the moneyline versus Cincinnati, which is his most profitable opponent. That said, in his last five starts against the Reds, he is only 3-2.

Furthermore, Lester is coming off a poor outing against a punchless Miami team, one in which he allowed 10 hits/walks in just 3.1 innings of work. Going back to 2017, the 34-year-old has seen the mph on his fastball drop and it's likely that we are seeing the veteran decline rapidly.

Need more reason to take a risk on the Reds tonight? The Cubs have combined for zero runs scored in their last two games (at Cincinnati and at Miami). Baseball is random, where even bad teams win 50-plus games. Take a flier on Cincy tonight.

 

TUESDAY MLB PREDICTION: CINCINNATI REDS +155

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