Cubs vs. Marlins Prediction
Will the Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins play over the betting total on Thursday when the 2018 MLB season opens nationwide?
Thursday, March 29, 2018
TV: ESPN, 12:30 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Jon Lester (L) vs. Jose Urena (R)
Chicago opened as -175 money line favorites before the line moved to -195, while Miami went from +150 up to +175. The total moved as well, dropping from 8 down to 7.5 at the majority of online sportsbooks.
PUBLIC BETTING INFORMATION
As of this writing, 87% of betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Cubs to win on the money line. Meanwhile, 51% of the betting tickets are on the over.
Lester is coming off a mediocre 2017 campaign. Right out the gates he'll see a powerless Miami lineup in a pitcher-friendly ballpark but when they do reach base today, the Marlins' speed could give Lester fits. He's a bottom-five pitcher when it comes to holding on runners. Meanwhile, Chicago owns one of the best offenses in baseball. Urena only had a 16% strikeout rate and an 8% swinging strike rate in 2017, so the ball should be put in play a lot when the Cubs are up. I like the over, which was 8-1 in Lester's last nine starts in 2017.
THURSDAY MLB PREDICTION: CUBS/MARLINS OVER 7.5