Mississippi State vs. Alabama Pick
Is the total set too low in Saturday's Mississippi State and Alabama game at 12:00PM ET?
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Crimson Tide are 28.5-point favorites over the Bulldogs while the over/under currently sits at 55 points. Both the side and total have been bet down a half-point, with Alabama going from -29 down to -28.5, and the total dropping from 55.5 down to 55.
MISSISSIPPI STATE KEY TRENDS: The Bulldogs, fresh off their big upset against Texas A&M last week, are 17-8 against the spread in their last 25 conference games but are just 1-4 against the number in their last five games after covering the week prior. They've also thrived as an underdog, both overall and on the road, going 12-4 at the betting window in their last 16 games as a dog and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a road dog.
ALABAMA KEY TRENDS: After beating LSU 10-0 in Baton Rouge last Saturday night, the Crimson Tide are 4-0 against the spread in their last four conference games and are now 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a favorite. They've also been a great play at home for bettors, covering in five of their last six games in Tuscaloosa. How has Nick Saban's teams fared as a home favorite of 10.5 points or greater? They've covered in four of their last five games in those situations.
OUR PREDICTION: Since Mississippi State has thrived as an underdog and Alabama has thrived as a favorite, there doesn't appear to be much value in the side. (Plus, with the Crimson Tide coming off a hard-fought win in Baton Rouge and the Bulldogs confident after beating A&M, it's best not to mess with the point spread.) That said, there does appear to be some value in the total. The under is 4-0 in the Crimson Tide's last four games as a home favorite and 4-0 in their last four home games overall. The under is also 4-1 in the Bulldogs' last five games coming off a win and is 5-1 in their last six games as a road underdog. Alabama won't have the same problems as A&M did last Saturday slowing down Nick Fitzgerald in what should be a low-scoring game for bettors.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 11 PICK: MISSISSIPPI STATE/ALABAMA UNDER 55