Bills vs. Dolphins Free Pick

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BUFFALO, NY (The Spread) - The Miami Dolphins take on the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo today at 1:00PM ET. Which team is the right play for bettors?

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The Dolphins opened up their season with a convincing win over the New England Patriots last Sunday in Miami, while the Bills needed overtime to get a win over the Bears in Week 1. According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, this game is currently set as a pick'em between these two teams, while the over/under is listed at 42.5 points.

The right play in this game is to take Buffalo. The Bills will be ready to put on a show for their home crowd after the news the team will be staying in Buffalo. The Dolphins did beat the Patriots, but that's nothing new as Miami always seems to match up well with New England.

The Dolphins will be going up against a completely different style of the Bills. The Patriots are a pass-heavy team, while the Bills are a run-heavy team. Miami's quarterback Ryan Tannehill had a solid performance, but had 32 passing attempts compared to Bill's quarterback EJ Manuel, who had 22 passing attempts against Chicago. This shows that the Dolphins will need more from Tannehill in the air to come away with a win, as opposed to the Bills, who won’t need the same effort from Manuel to succeed.

Buffalo beat Miami twice last season and there's no reason to think they can't do it again.  The Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games, plus they are 7-3 ATS in their last ten home games versus Miami.  The Dolphins are 2-4 ATS in their last six road games, plus an ugly 8-17 straight up in their last 25 road games. ATS trends don't always lead you to the winning play, but in this case they do.

The money is just about split down the middle on this game and that makes sense here because these teams are very comparable at this point in the season. The home field and crowd should prove to give the Bills the extra edge to push them over the top here. Take the Bills today.

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