Are Broncos worth a weekly bet?
DENVER, CO (The Spread) – Are the Denver Broncos worth betting on a weekly basis? Despite conventional wisdom, they might be worth the risk.
Denver had a very nice and apparently insurmountable lead against Indianapolis but got back doored in the end. Last season Denver posted an 11-7 ATS mark and I fully expect that they will meet that record and possibly exceed it this season. I never advise betting the same team each week, but many fans will do so. In the case of Denver, I see those fans ending up making money, not a lot of money, but will be able to buy dinner a few times over.
Denver defeated Indianapolis 31-24, but failed to cover as 8-point favorites. What I noticed in this game and what ended up being a big red flag to back Denver occurred after the late games were completed. The DOGS had a big day and that means the public, who heavily sides with favorites, had a tough day. The Amateur will look for the next available game to make back those losses and is often times the worst betting decision anyone can ever decide to undertake. The line was a solid 7 1/2 until the conclusion of the late games. However, there was a steady and building flow of small bet wagers on Denver and nearly every parlay was centered on Denver. Simply, when I see more than 75% of wagers focused on one team, it will nearly always eliminate my wager on that team and in many case, the SIM has a play on the other team. The end result was the books were confident in pushing the line to 8, which brought even more small bets into action.
So, Denver now faces KC in Week 2 and is installed as 12-point favorites. Without going into the research facts and matchups, I like Denver to cover quite a bit. The professionals, including myself, always look to back double digit dogs in NFL action. However, I think we are on the edge of a new trend in the NFL where taking double digit favorites will be money makers over the course of the season.
Let's move through the rest of the season. Week 3 is the bid show down and rematch with Seattle where they will under dogs for perhaps the only game of the season. Their remaining road tilts are at NY Jets, at New England, at Oakland, at St. Louis, at KC, at San Diego, and then at Cincinnati in Week 16. Obviously, the Patriots game could see them as 3 point dogs, but if New England doesn't address the poor OL situations and performances, then Denver could easily find themselves a modest favorite in Foxborough.
Home games will Arizona, SFG, San Diego, Miami, Buffalo, and Oakland in final week fo the season. The key advantage for Denver is that they have the ability to get off to fast starts and put opponents behind by two or three scores. This forces those opponents to abandon their best game play for success and move to the air in a attempt to get back into the game. For that reason alone, I see Denver winning 10 or more of their regular season games ATS.