Is Missouri on upset watch today?
LAS VEGAS, NV (The Spread) - Bettors should be looking at two early underdogs to cash in Week 2 of the college football season.
I have already nailed two huge dogs in Texas A&M and Texas- San Antonio in Week1. I am entering my 21st season of professional wagering and I can tell you that 'value' is a word I just don't like when it comes to handicapping analysis. Value in my world, means identifying a team that is vastly under rated on it's own merit and NOT based on a betting line. Texas A&M was expected to lose badly to South Carolina and were installed as 11 point dogs. However, the matchups I featured in the report clearly showed why I completely believed they would win SU.
Missouri at Toledo
The same case can be made in this game where Toledo is a program with limited media attention. Briefly, The Toledo defensive unit that returns 9 starters will more than just contain a rebuilding Missouri offensive unit. In fact, Missouri returns just four starters on both offensive and defensive units. This is a game that Toledo can win and would play it as a combination wager consisting of a 5* play using the line and a 2* play using the money line for a total of 7* wager risk. Take Toledo.
Central Michigan at Purdue
Purdue is currently lined as a three point home favorite. CMU returns all 11 starters on offense and this experience and team chemistry is a dominant reason I see them upsetting Purdue. Further, the public is betting Purdue at a high level and this is nearly always a red flag. Of the 12 books I monitor, whenever the public wagers exceeds 74% on a given team, it is a supporting piece of research that the opposition is the better play, especially when my Simulator has a graded play on that opposition.
System Play Supporting CMU Upset
I study fundamental matchups and game situations, but i also use technical tools to support a graded play from the Simulator. Here is a truly awesome system that has feasts on false favorites and has posted a 27-14 mark for 66% winners making 24 units/unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged a very nice +144 DOG line. Play against a home team using the money line (PURDUE) and is a team with a horrible scoring defense last season that allowed 35 or more points/game and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in games played during the first two weeks of the season.