Should bettors fade FSU & Auburn?
LAS VEGAS, NV (The Spread) – Should bettors fade Florida State and Auburn this college football season, at least early in the year? Let’s take a look.
In 2013, Auburn and FSU combined for a 21-5 ATS record and it took weeks for the linesmakers to adjust for the soft lines they are were putting out. Well, the linesmakers couldn't ever adjust enough for either of these teams as FSU and Auburn still found ways to cover and to keep bettors happy.
This year, all eyes will be on FSU and Auburn and I am expecting to see 'inflated' lines. While the 'public' will still be putting their money on these teams, I am looking to play against the Seminoles and the Tigers until the linesmakers adjust accordingly.
FSU lost their top RB and WR to the NFL draft and they accounted for 29 touchdowns in 2013. FSU was a favorite of -23 or more points in 9 games last year and I am seeing plenty of games with inflated spreads this year. After FSU averaged 51 ppg in 2013, I am looking for a slight decline to around 45 ppg in 2014.
For the defense, the Seminoles lost five of their top 6 tacklers, which included their top 2 leaders in sacks. Also, they bring in a new defensive coordinator and it will be hard for them to only hold opponents to 12 ppg like they did in 2013. It will take time for the linesmakers to adjust for what I feel will be 'inflated' lines and I have no problem fading the Seminoles in 2014.
Auburn had the magic touch last season as they just found ways to win and cover the spread. The linesmakers have now adjusted for them in 2014, but I feel they have over-adjusted. It needs to be noted that Auburn lost RB Tre Mason to the NFL, a player who rushed for 23 touchdowns in 2013, as well as guard Alex Kozan, who is out for the season as well. Kozan was a 1st Team AA Freshmen last season and I'm looking for the running game to regress slightly.
They also lost their best defensive lineman in Dee Ford, who had 10.5 sacks and 17 hits on the quarterback. Ford was a #1 draft pick and I feel that he is worth 1.5 points to my Power Ranking. Also, the special teams took a big hit with the losses of their KR/PR/K/P.
Again, I have no problem fading the Auburn Tigers as the linesmakers have over-adjusted for them in 2014 and are giving them a little too much respect in my opinion.