How to spot value in the playoffs
LAS VEGAS, NV (The Spread) - The NBA playoffs are off and running. Let's take a look at how to spot value in the NBA playoffs and pad your bankroll.
There are a few factors you should take into consideration when looking at the NBA playoffs. The first being how did the teams matchup versus each other in the regular season. Did one team dominate the season series, did it go down to the wire, or was each game a completely different outcome? This is important because the NBA playoffs are all about adjustments and looking at the regular season, it can give you some insight on which team has the edge in that category.
Another factor to take into consideration is looking at the road to the playoffs. Did the team have to fight tooth and nail to just squeak in or did they have their playoff position locked in some what early and coasted into the first round? This plays into finding value because a team that wrapped it up early could come out a little rusty, while the team that fought to get in should still have that fighter's mentality.
I always take the head coach/staff more into consideration in the playoffs, then in the regular season. The coaching plays more of a factor, because of the fact adjustments are so important. The better coach is going to give his team the advantage in certain spots. A good example of this is the 2nd game between the Clippers/Warriors. I was all over the Clippers in that one, because I knew Doc Rivers being the coach that he is, was going to make the right adjustments, and have his team prepared. The result in that one the Clippers dominated.
You should also compare the last games results to the line in the upcoming game. The Clippers/Warriors series is a good example of this as well. The Warriors stole game 1, yet the line in game 2 was around the same as in game 1. The public bought heavily on the Warriors catching that many points again, and were burned. The Heat are also a team that the public likes to back no matter the line, so take that into consideration as well.
\It's always smart to take a look at where the public money is landing and how have the odds makers adjusted the line. Sports bettors come out of the woodwork in playoff time, and you can bet the odds makers are going to be on their game. This shouldn't be the end all be all of your decision, but definitely take it into consideration.