bimmercandoSeems better now….
JIMMY ADAMS
(391) BUFFALO BILLS AT (392) DENVER BRONCOS: MONEYLINE
Date/Time:Jan 17 2026 4:30 PM EST
Line Provider:Fanduel
Play Rating:5%
Odds:+100
Play:Buffalo Bills 100
Jacksonville was a popular pick with many bettors last week, allowing the clients and I to come in on the other side and cash a nice ticket with Buffalo. Now the Bills head to Denver winners of 6 of their past 7, with the lone loss over that span coming by 1 point to the then defending Super Bowl champion Eagles. Josh Allen is a “bet on” quarterback this time of year, and he was the ultimate difference maker in their Wild Card win. He does things that most quarterbacks can’t, and his decision making has drastically improved over the years.
The Broncos have had an extra week to prepare, but we’ve seen that backfire many times throughout the years. In fact, you can make a strong argument that having a road playoff win already under your belt is an advantage. When we look at the analytics, Buffalo ranks 3rd in EPA per play on offense, while Denver sits down at 15th. That’s a drastic difference and one that could very well decide this game. The Broncos have found ways to win, but this is not a team you can count on to put points up with regularity, having scored 20 or fewer in their past 3 games. While everyone agrees that Sean Payton’s defense is solid, the differential isn’t as big as many may think. Denver is 8th in EPA per play defensively with Buffalo coming in at 13th. The Bills are also 2ndin the NFL in opponent passing yards per game, so a few big mistakes from Bo Nix will have a very meaningful impact. Speaking of quarterbacks, when just looking at the advanced metrics, Josh Allen grades out 4th in the model that I use. Nix is 19th. When the game is on the line, you want the ball in Josh Allen’s hands. This team as a whole has a lot of playoff experience, and given their current form, we can fully expect them to pick up this divisional round win and move on to the conference championship. Take the Bills ML.
5% Play on Bills MONEYLINE at -130 or better, 4% at worse than -130
Zachary Cohen
NFL
Broncos -115
Prop Play Broncos RB RJ Harvey Over 48.5 rushing yards
Seahawks -7
Prop Play Seahawks QB Sam Darnold Over 233.5 passing yards
Pickswise Sports
NFL (Regular Season +78.1 units & Playoffs +15.2 units)
3* Broncos -1
3* Under 46.5
4* Under 45.5
3* Seahawks -7
Saturday NFL Divisional Playoff Betting Trends
Bills at Broncos (-1½, 46): A rematch of a wild-card game last season won and covered by the host Buffalo Bills, 31-7. The Bills are 1-2 straight up and against the spread the past three seasons in the divisional round. Buffalo is 5-4 ATS away from home this season and 9-9 ATS overall. The Bills are on a 6-3 under run on the road, and the Broncos are on a 12-7 under run overall. Denver has won 13 of its past 14 home games, but hasn’t won a playoff game since Super Bowl 50 at Santa Clara, California, in 2016, and is on a 3-9 spread slide as a favorite. Edge: Under and slight to Broncos.
49ers at Seahawks (-7, 45): The NFC West rivals split their two meetings this season, with the road team winning and covering each time. The visiting team has won and covered all four meetings since last season, and the Niners have won and covered their past four trips to Seattle. The past three meetings have gone under. San Francisco has won and covered seven of its past eight games overall and its past five on the road. Niners coach Kyle Shanahan has won and covered four of his past five road playoff games. San Francisco is 2-4 ATS as an underdog this season. The Seahawks have won seven in a row but went 4-3 ATS in those games. Seattle is 4-4 ATS at home this season. Edge: 49ers and slight to under.
ATS.bet
NFL Playoffs Saturday 1/17/26
3Units: 2Team 7pt Teaser Or Alternative Parlay (-130)
Buffalo Bills +8.5
SF 49ers +14
Weekend football predictions: Pro sports bettors pick NFL playoff games
The road team has won and covered the past four meetings between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks, and the Niners have won and covered their past four trips to Seattle.
“Dr. Alan” Dumond, who hit his two best bets in the Las Vegas Review-Journal last week, expects San Francisco to cover at Seattle again as a 7-point road underdog in Saturday’s NFL divisional round playoff game.
“The 49ers arrive into Seattle confident off their upset win over the Eagles and have a chance to avenge their Week 18 loss to the Seahawks,” Dumond said. “The 49ers’ coach-quarterback combo of Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy have a huge playoff experience edge over the Seahawks’ coach-quarterback combo of Mike Macdonald and Sam Darnold, neither of whom has won a playoff game.
“For as well as the Seahawks have played this year, this is simply too many points for them to be laying in a game of this magnitude.”
Dumond also likes the Los Angeles Rams-Chicago Bears game Sunday to go under 48½.
“Despite both sides being involved in high-scoring affairs last week, we expect both defenses to play better this week,” he said. “Both squads will likely lean on their running games more in the expected frigid weather conditions, with the possibility of high winds.”
Here are four more best bets (home team in CAPS):
Rams (-3½) over BEARS
The Bears have seven fourth-quarter comeback wins this season, including last week’s home victory over the rival Green Bay Packers. But pro sports bettor Scott Pritchard (Pritchardspicks.com) expects their magic to run out against the Rams.
“Congrats to the Bears with another miracle fluke comeback win last week,” he said. “Luck is not a strategy. Rams with No. 1 offense in yards and points is.”
BRONCOS (-1) over Bills
“Denver seems to be downgraded by many in the pundit class because Sean Payton’s team cut it awfully close on many occasions this season, standing 11-2 in one-score games,” CBS Sportsline handicapper Bruce Marshall said. “Yet the truth might rather be that Denver is very comfortable playing these sorts of games.
“Denver’s NFL-best pass rush is going to force (Bills quarterback) Josh Allen into lots of improvising, at which he is very good, but … we still maintain the Bills aren’t quite to recent levels because of the defense, and pulling a rabbit out of the hat last week at Jacksonville is no indicator it will happen again.”
PATRIOTS (-3) over Texans
“It’s hard to find value with sharp playoff lines, but New England shows value in my model. They get the benefit of home cooking and field the possible MVP in quarterback Drake Maye,” said pro bettor Cris Zeniuk (@lasvegascris). “Experienced coaching will be a benefit versus the very capable Texans, who are faced with key injuries, not to mention some seriously poor play by quarterback C.J. Stroud last week.
“I also like a money line parlay of Seattle and New England for +105.”
Texans (+3½) over PATRIOTS
“I bet Houston +3½ and still like it at +3 even,” said pro bettor Randy McKay (@RR39), who correctly called the Texans’ win and cover over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night. “The Texans defense reminds me of the 2001 Baltimore Ravens. Hopefully quarterback C.J. Stroud doesn’t mess it up like he did versus the Steelers (with three turnovers).
“I believe their offensive line is better than the Patriots’ and will have the offensive success that the Los Angeles Chargers didn’t (in last week’s 16-3 wild-card loss). New England is still a young team, and Houston’s experience will win out.”
Scott Pritchard
Bills (13-5) at Broncos (14-3)
Time: 1:30 p.m. Saturday, CBS
Line/total: Broncos -1½, 46
Analysis: In the last meeting between these teams, the Broncos were routed 31-7 by the Bills in Buffalo in last season’s wild-card playoffs. Although Denver has greatly fortified its defense since then to leap into the top four in most statistical categories, the question remains how they will slow down the Bills offensive juggernaut led by quarterback Josh Allen, the reigning NFL MVP who dismantled the Jaguars’ highly-touted defense with his arm and feet last week. He rushed for two touchdowns while passing for 273 yards. The Broncos’ greater dilemma might be how they improve on those seven points they scored in their last meeting with Buffalo, as their just slightly above average offense must face the NFL’s No. 1 pass defense. Unfortunately for Denver, the old French phrase, “the more things change, the more they stay the same,” applies again, and the victory goes to the Bills behind another valiant effort.
Pick: Bills 27, Broncos 20
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49ers (13-5) at Seahawks (14-3)
Time: 5 p.m. Saturday, Fox
Line/total: Seahawks -7, 45
Analysis: These teams just played each other two weeks ago, when the Seahawks dominated the 49ers while dealing them an ego-crushing 13-3 defeat at Santa Clara, Calif. The Seahawks dominated not so much in the final score, which would have been more lopsided if not for a couple missed field goals by Seattle kicker Jason Myers, but by the way the Seahawks defense stymied the Niners offense, limiting them to 173 total yards and nine first downs. Seattle coach Mike Macdonald calls the plays on defense for the Seahawks, and he’s had the inside angle on defending 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy since 2023 when Macdonald was defensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens, when they intercepted Purdy four times. San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan will have to pull more than a few rabbits out of his hat to lift the Niners’ pass-reliant offense without tight end George Kittle against the NFL’s No. 1 defense in points allowed and third-down conversions. Offensive failures will put even more pressure on a 49ers defense that can be called average at best. In the end, Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold and Seattle’s third-ranked scoring offense proves too talented to contain.
Pick: Seahawks 24, 49ers 20
Brandon Lang
The Pick: My 200 Dime winner is the Denver Broncos
The Line: The current line is -1 1/2 at the majority of books in Vegas and offshore as of 8:00 am EST. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.
Note: None at this price. You play it as it is.
Steve Fezzik
2* Buf/Den UN 46
2* Sea RB Walker OVER 58.5 ru†sh yards -115
2* Sea RB Charbonnet OVER 48.5 rush yards -115
2* Sea QB Darnold UNDER 238.5 pass yards -115
Brady Kannon
NFL
1 Unit Buff +1.5 -115
Emory Hunt
NFL
1 Unit Buf -1.5 +100
1 Unit SF +7.5 -114
Micah Roberts
1 Unit Over 45.5 -112 Buf / DEN
1 Unit Den -103
1 Unit SF +7.5 -110
1 Unit Over 44.5 -110 SF / SEA
Gianni the Greek
NFL
4% TEASER PROP Buffalo +7.5 & Seattle -1/2
Thomas Casale
NCAAB
1 Unit N. Carolina -3.5 -110
NFL
1 Unit Zach Charbonnett Over 9.5 Total Receiving Yards -113