bimmercandoDave Tuley
VSiN.com
Last week: 3-2
Season: 37-45-3
Dolphins +10½
Lions +3
Steelers +3½
Browns +7½
Giants +3½
Sharp money moves line on lightly bet Raiders-Chiefs season finale
LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTION
Just lose, baby.
That’s what the Raiders need to do against the Chiefs in Sunday’s regular-season finale at Allegiant Stadium to secure the No. 1 pick in April’s NFL draft.
Kansas City, which has dominated the series, winning nine of the last 10 meetings and 19 of 23, is a consensus 5½-point favorite over the Raiders and the consensus total is 36½. The Chiefs are -5 at the South Point sportsbook and the total is 36 at the South Point, Circa Sports and the Westgate SuperBook.
The Westgate took a sharp bet on the Raiders +6½ on Monday when it opened the line and the number has been at 5½ since then.
“The Raiders are trying not to win and Kansas City’s starting arguably one of the 10 worst quarterbacks ever to start in the league (in Chris Oladokun). It’s just a tough game,” SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said. “The Chiefs have been playing good defense, at least. (Coach) Andy Reid keeps talking about that they want to close the season right and win, and the Raiders, I’m sure, are happy to lose because that’s what they’re trying to do.”
Salmons said the betting public has “zero interest” in the game and neither do bettors at Boomer’s Sportsbook.
“No action whatsoever yet,” Boomer’s director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said Saturday afternoon. “Hopefully there is some (Sunday) so we’ll have a decision on the game but right now, betting on that game is nonexistent.”
There is some action at STN Sports, where the Chiefs account for 74 percent of spread bets and 62 percent of bets on the total are on the under.
Kansas City (6-10, 6-9-1 against the spread) crushed the Raiders 31-0 in the first meeting in October but has lost five straight and seven of its last eight overall while going 1-7 ATS. The Chiefs are on a 9-1 under run.
“I believe we will be Raiders fans when the game kicks,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said.
The Raiders (2-14, 6-10 ATS) have lost 10 straight and are on a 2-5 spread skid. They’re on a 4-1 over run.
Best bets
Westgate SuperBook vice president of marketing Jay Kornegay, who leads the Las Vegas Review-Journal NFL Challenge (47-36-2 ATS), made the Raiders +5½ one of his five plays this week.
“I can see a low-scoring game here,” he said. “After years of playing meaningful games, the Chiefs understandably are uninspired. Additionally, the Raiders know what’s on the line. I can see the points coming into play.”
On the flip side, legendary sportscaster Brent Musburger (on a 19-10-1 ATS run in the RJ Challenge) and pro handicapper Doug Fitz (on a 7-3 ATS run in the RJ Challenge) took the Chiefs.
“The Chiefs should close an otherwise disappointing season with a win and cover on a relatively short number,” said Fitz (Systemplays.com). “There’s incentive to play hard for Travis Kelce, perhaps playing his last game. The Raiders clinch the No. 1 draft pick with a loss and there’s no good reason for them to put forth much effort. The Chiefs should win rather convincingly.”
A former radio play-by-play voice for the Raiders, Musburger now has season tickets for the Silver and Black.
“As a Raider season ticket holder, I’m all in on guaranteeing the No. 1 pick in the draft by losing to the Chiefs, who happen to be 6-0 in Allegiant Stadium,” he said. “I’m also hoping Taylor Swift drops by to watch Travis Kelce bow out with a touchdown and a victory.”
NFL TRENDS
Sunday
* Chiefs (-5½, 37) at Raiders: The Chiefs rolled 31-0 in the first meeting. Kansas City is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS against the Raiders at Allegiant Stadium, though it has lost five straight overall. The Chiefs snapped an 0-7 spread slide in a Christmas Day home loss to the Broncos and are on a 9-1 under run. The Raiders have lost 10 straight and are on a 2-5 spread slide. They’re also on a 4-1 over run. Edge: Slight to under and Chiefs.
* Saints at Falcons (-3, 45): Atlanta won the first meeting 24-10 and has won and covered three in a row overall. The Falcons are on a 7-2 over run. New Orleans has won and covered its last four games and is on a 10-2 under run. Edge: Saints.
* Browns at Bengals (-7½, 44½): The Bengals won but didn’t cover in a 17-16 Week 1 win at Cleveland. Cincinnati had won and covered the previous three meetings. The Browns are 1-6 ATS on the road. The Bengals are 4-1 ATS since quarterback Joe Burrow returned and they’re on a 5-2 under run. The under is on a 6-1-1 run in the series. Edge: Bengals and under.
* Packers at Vikings (-7½, 35½): The Packers won and covered the first meeting 23-6 but have lost and failed to cover their last three overall. Green Bay is on a 3-10-1 ATS slide away from home and a 4-1 over run overall. The Vikings have won and covered four straight and are on a 7-1 under run. Edge: Vikings and under.
* Cowboys (-3½, 51) at Giants: The Cowboys won the first meeting in a wild 40-37 overtime shootout for their ninth straight win over the Giants (6-2-1 ATS). The over is on a 5-2 run in the series and Dallas is on an 11-2 over uptick. The Cowboys have lost three of their last four overall while going 0-4 ATS. New York snapped a nine-game losing streak in last week’s win over the Raiders and is on a 4-3 spread run. The Giants are on a 9-2 over run. Edge: Over and Cowboys.
* Titans at Jaguars (-12½, 47½): The Jaguars have won and covered the last three meetings and are on a 5-2 ATS run against the Titans. Jacksonville has won and covered seven straight overall and is on a 6-3 over run. Tennessee is on a 5-3 ATS uptick and a 7-3 over run. Edge: Jaguars and over.
* Colts at Texans (-10½, 38½): The Texans won and covered the first meeting 20-16 at Indianapolis, which has lost six straight and is on a 1-4 ATS skid. Houston is on a 5-1 spread streak and 5-2 under run. Edge: Texans and slight to under.
* Jets at Bills (-7, 38): The Bills have won and covered the last four meetings. The Jets have lost and failed to cover four straight overall, with each loss by at least 23 points, and are on a 4-1 over run. Edge: Bills and slight to over.
* Lions at Bears (-3, 50½): The Lions have won and covered the last two meetings, though they’re on a 1-6 spread skid overall. Detroit is on a 7-2 over run. The Bears are 4-1-1 ATS at home this season. Edge: Bears and over.
* Chargers at Broncos (-12½, 37½): The Chargers have won and covered the last three meetings. The Broncos are on a 1-4 ATS skid overall and 2-9 ATS as favorites. Denver is on a 4-1 over run. Edge: Slight to Chargers and over.
* Cardinals at Rams (-7, 46): The Rams won the first meeting 45-17 and are on a 5-0 over streak. The Cardinals have lost 13 of their last 14 overall and are on a 1-7 ATS slide. Edge: Rams and over.
* Dolphins at Patriots (-10½, 45½): The Patriots won and covered the first meeting 33-27 at Miami to end the Dolphins’ 9-0 spread streak in the series. New England is on a 10-3 ATS run and the over is on an 8-2 run in the series. Edge: Over and slight to Patriots.
* Commanders at Eagles (-4, 38½): The Eagles won and covered the first meeting 29-18 and have won and covered their last three overall. The over is on a 6-1 run in the series. Washington is on a 3-7 ATS slide overall and a 9-4-1 over run. Edge: Slight to Eagles and over.
* Ravens (-3½, 40½) at Steelers: The Steelers won and covered the first meeting 27-22 and have won four of the last five meetings at Pittsburgh while going 3-2 ATS. The Ravens have won five straight on the road overall while going 4-1 ATS. Edge: Slight to Ravens.
Big Al McMordie
NFL Selections
1* Jaguars -10.5, 1:00 pm
1* Patriots – 10, 4:25 pm
1* Raiders +6, 4:25 pm
1* Broncos – 7.5, 4:25 pm
Gianni the Greek
4% New York Jets +7.5 (-115)
4% Saints at Falcons Under +44.5 (-115)
NFL 2025 Picks 164 -151 5% picks 6-5
Al DeMarco GM
30 DIME play on Chicago-3.5
Buy the 1/2-point down on Chicago if your price is between -3 and -4 1/2.
Insider Money Moves
Football Winner # 6 in a Row
50 DIME Winner # 29 of 47
Sharp vs. Public Insider Money Move
50 Dime Las Vegas Raiders+4.5
Be active with this line and be sure you’re buying the half point UP if the line is between +2.5 and +4 points.
Sleepy J
NFL
3* PROP PICK LIONS Jared Goff UNDER 256.5 passing yards
3* PROP PICK Steelers Marquez Valdez Scantling over 28.5 rec yds
3* PARLAY on Moneyline LAC / DEN Parlay (-166)
NFL season 75-82-1
Matt Rivers
50 Dime – Baltimore Ravens-3.5
If you line is anywhere between -3 to -4 1/2 points, then you buy the half-point down on Baltimore.
Rick Torino
– Winning Day #6 in a Row –
All-In Max Wager
100 DIME
Career Football Winner # 38 of 57
– and 19 of last 28 –
100 Dime – L.A. Rams-13.5
Steve Budin CEO
Source: Baltimore Crew
50 Dime – Cincinnati Bengals+7.5
As a former bookmaker I’m going to repeat what I’ve told you many times over the past two decades: Put the power of money to work and buy down the 1/2-point on Cincinnati if the price you get is between -6 and -7 1/2.
ATS.bet
Sunday NFL Football 1/4/26
3Units: New York Giants – Dallas Cowboys Under 49.5
3Units: Philadelphia Eagles – Washington Commanders Under 39
88-50-3 109.51
Alternative Parlays/Teasers: 16-8 +23.08
Total: 104-58-3 +132.59
Al DeMarco
30 DIME play on Chicago-3.5
Buy the 1/2-point down on Chicago if your price is between -3 and -4 1/2
Bob Balfe
2025 VIP Football Record (95-92)
Falcons -3.5 over Saints
Jags -13.5 over Titans
Jets/Bills Over 37.5
Steelers +3.5 over Ravens
Jason Mahaffey
150 DIME
Game of My Career
150 Dime – Chicago Bears+3.5
If your price on Chicago is anywhere from -3 to -4 1/2 points, I want you to buy the half-point down on Da Bears.
Chris Jordan
Top-Rated 1000♦
NFL Winner # 12 of 17
NFC South Game of the Year, Part 2
1000♦ New Orleans Saints+3.5
Buy the half point up if the line is between +2 1/2 and +4 points.
Sean Michaels
100 DIME Max Wager
NFL Winner # 5 of 6
6-Point Line Mistake Lock
100 Dime New York Jets+8
Jack Jones
20*GOW Bengals -7
20*GOW Broncos -7
20*Bucs -3
15*Vikings -6.5
Jason Sharpe
8U GOY Chicago-3
4U Atlanta-3
3U Pittsburgh+3.5