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[Sticky] NFL Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Week 9

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(@shazman)
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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites.

 
Posted : October 29, 2024 4:44 am
(@shazman)
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NFL Dunkel Week 9

 
Posted : October 30, 2024 9:04 am
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NFL

Week 9

Trend Report

Houston vs NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
NY Jets is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Houston
NY Jets is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Houston

New England vs Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
New England is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing at home against New England

Dallas vs Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Denver vs Baltimore
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baltimore's last 8 games

Miami vs Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami's last 10 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

New Orleans vs Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games

Las Vegas vs Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Las Vegas's last 12 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Las Vegas
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Las Vegas

LA Chargers vs Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 9 games
LA Chargers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games
Cleveland is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games at home

Washington vs NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
Washington is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Giants's last 7 games when playing at home against Washington

Chicago vs Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Arizona's last 12 games at home

Jacksonville vs Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
Jacksonville is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville

LA Rams vs Seattle
LA Rams is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams

Detroit vs Green Bay
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Green Bay is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Detroit

Indianapolis vs Minnesota
Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

Tampa Bay vs Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

 
Posted : October 30, 2024 9:13 am
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Armadillo Sports

2024 NFL
Week 9
Thursday’s game
Texans
@ Jets (-2)
Texans (6-2)
Texans have five wins by 6 or fewer points.
Houston gave up 34-24 points in its two losses.
Last three games, Texans are +7 in turnovers.
Team total: under 6-2
Opponents’ team total: over 4-3-1

Texans are 10-4-1 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog, 
Houston is 7-9 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win. 
2nd-year QB Stroud is 16-9 as an NFL starter.
Houston is 9-8-1 ATS in last 18 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last two weeks, Texans were outscored 20-9 in second half.
AFC South underdogs are 4-7 ATS in non-divisional games.

Jets (2-6)
Jets are 0-5 SU/ATS in last five games.
Jets gave up 23-37-25 points in three games since coaching change. 
Jets are 0-6 scoring less than 24 points.
Team total: under 4-1 last five
Opponents’ team total: over 4-0 last four

Jets are 4-10 ATS last 14 games as a home favorite. 
Jets are 15-21 ATS last 36 games coming off a loss.
Last three weeks, Jets were outscored 45-12 in 2nd half.
Jets are 5-12-1 ATS last 18 games with spread of 3 or fewer points..
Jets converted only 20 of last 66 third down plays.
AFC East teams are 6-15-1 ATS in non-divisional games.

Teams split their last six meetings.
Texans won two of their last three visits to New Jersey. 

 
Posted : October 30, 2024 9:16 am
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NFL
Weather Report
Thursday, October 31

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Posted : October 31, 2024 7:09 am
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Top NFL Things To Know​

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Something Is Off​

Jets Favored vs. Texans
We may see the Jets close as favorites this week vs. Texans. In a team's 9th game or later, this could be just the 7th time since 1990 a team with a win pct 50+ pct pts lower is listed as a favorite.

The previous six teams listed as the favorite in that spot went 6-0 SU and 4-0-2 ATS.

Also worth noting, the Jets and Giants are now a combined 4-33 straight-up playing at night in prime time since 2019.


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AFC Least​

Division Struggles
Here is how divisions have performed ATS this year vs. teams outside their division.

The best? NFC North at 18-7 ATS, AFC West at 14-6 ATS

The worst? AFC East at 5-15-1 ATS, NFC South at 6-14 ATS

The AFC East’s 5-15-1 ATS mark through 8 weeks is the 2nd-worst in the Wild Card era (since 1990), ahead of just the AFC Central in 2000 at 3-10 ATS.


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Best vs. Best​

LaFleur & Campbell
The Packers are 2-1 SU/ATS as dogs this season. Matt LaFleur is 24-11 ATS (69%) as an underdog, the best percentage for any coach in the Super Bowl era. LaFleur is also 20-15 SU as a dog (+$1,695 on $100 bet).

In the regular season, Dan Campbell is 45-25 ATS (64%) as coach of the Dolphins and Lions. That 64% win pct is the best for any head coach with a minimum 20 games in the Super Bowl era.

The Lions are 41-17 ATS (70.7%) in the regular season over the past four years — the best three-year ATS stretch since 2016-18 NE and, as of now, the best four-year ATS stretch for any team in the Wild Card era since 1990.


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Big Dog For You​

Cashing Outright
Big underdogs are barking so far this season.

Dogs of +200 or higher: 15-24 SU (+$1,556), 23-14-2 ATS

Dogs of +250 or higher: 9-11 SU (+$1,557), 12-7-1 ATS

The 15 SU wins by dogs of +200 or higher is T-most through 8 weeks in the last 20 years.


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Off 8 Mile​

Impact After Facing Lions
Teams after facing the Lions are 0-6 SU/ATS this season, failing to cover by an average of 19.3 PPG and 14-25 ATS over the last three seasons – the least profitable previous opponent ATS in the NFL. Top 3: DET, HOU, SF


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Public Strikes Back​

Turn Around
The betting public (51%+ of tickets) are 57-59-3 ATS (49%) this season, with a $100 bettor down $711. We’ve seen a turn in the last three weeks.

Public by week:

Weeks 6-8: 29-13-1 ATS, 69% (Teams with 66%+ tickets are 21-6-1 ATS)

Weeks 1-5: 48-69-2 ATS, 41%


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First Half Issues​

Carolina Slow Starts
The reason for Carolina’s struggles of late have been starting slow. They are 1-14 against the first-half spread in their last 15 games overall, worst mark in the NFL in that span.

Bryce Young has now lost 11 consecutive games against the first-half spread with the Panthers.


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Passing Is Down​

Still Covering
Passing hasn’t equaled on-field success so far this season. Teams to pass for 200 yards or fewer are 54-50-2 ATS this year. That would be the 3rd-highest ATS win pct over a full season since 1990.


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Absolute Zero​

Eagles 1Q Woes
A stat that feels impossible. Through seven games, the Eagles haven’t scored a point in the first quarter. They are 0-7 against the first-quarter spread, the only team in the NFL without a 1Q ATS cover this year.

Dating back to last season, the Eagles haven’t scored a point in the 1Q in 9 straight games. The last game they did was against the Cardinals – a 12-yard TD pass from Jalen Hurts to Julio Jones.


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Two Sides​

Good and the Bad
This season, Caleb Williams is 7-0 against the second-half spread. The only undefeated QBs 2H ATS (min. 2 starts) are Joe Flacco (2-0) and Russell Wilson (2-0).

On the road, on a Sunday, the Bears have lost 18 consecutive games dating back to the day after Christmas in 2021 – won by Nick Foles – Andy Dalton, Justin Fields, Trevor Siemian, Tyson Bagent, and Caleb Williams have all lost since Foles' win.

 
 
Posted : October 31, 2024 9:53 am
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Best NFL Week 9 betting trends​

The trend: The Texans have gone Under in 16 of their last 22 regular season games

The trend: Kirk Cousins has thrown at least one interception in every Falcons’ home game this season

The trend: The Dolphins are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games

The trend: The Raiders haven’t covered a spread in Cincinnati since 1991

The trend: No Chargers game this season has reached the 40-point mark

The trend: The Titans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite

The trend: Giants’ home games this season have an average combined score of just 31 points

The trend: Panthers games are 8-0 to the first half Over this season

The trend: The Ravens are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of seven or more

The trend: The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite

The trend: Eight of the Bears’ last nine road games have gone Under

The trend: Under Matt LaFleur, Green Bay has gone an amazing 17-4 ATS as an underdog of three points or more.

The trend: The Rams are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 divisional games

The trend: The Colts have covered the spread in six straight games

The trend: The Bucs have gone Over in five straight games

 
Posted : October 31, 2024 9:54 am
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