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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 15
Saturday’s games
Big X championship game (@ Arlington, TX)
Iowa State vs Arizona State (-2)
Iowa State (10-2, 7-2)
Iowa State won its last three games, scoring 34-31-29 points.
Cyclones’ losses: 23-22 Tex Tech/45-36 at Kansas
Cyclones have 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Cyclones have 90 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Becht started 13 games last season.
In his career, Campbell is 36-19-2 ATS as an underdog.
Under Campbell, ISU is 25-14-2 ATS as an underdog.
Cyclones are 11-7 ATS in last 18 conference games.
Cyclones are +9 in turnovers this season.
Over is 6-5 in Iowa State’s I-A games.
Iowa State (+5) lost this game 27-21 to Oklahoma in 2020.
Arizona State (10-2, 7-2)
ASU is 10-2 TY, after going 6-18 the last two years.
Sun Devils scored 24+ points in their wins, 22-14 in losses.
ASU has 6 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Sun Devils have 57 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Leavitt has 2,444 PY this year, with 21 TD’s, 5 INTs.
ASU is 10-2 SU/ATS this season.
Under Dillingham, ASU is 13-5 ATS in conference games.
ASU is 10-13 ATS in last 23 games coming off a win.
Arizona State is 5-0 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
This is ASU’s first season in the Big X.
These teams haven’t met in the last five years.
Favorites are 3-2 ATS in last five Big X title games.
MAC championship game (@ Detroit)
Ohio U vs Miami OH (-2)
Ohio U (9-3, 7-1)
Bobcats won last five games by an average score of 38-11.
Ohio U is 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS in MAC games.
Bobcats have 2 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Bobcats have 57 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Navarro has thrown for 1,934 yards (10 TD’s, 10 INTs)
Ohio U is 3-2 ATS as an underdog this year.
Under Albin, Ohio U is 13-10 ATS as an underdog.
Under Albin, Bobcats are 23-10 ATS in MAC games.
Ohio is 2-3 SU, despite being minus-2 in turnovers.
Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
Bobcats lost this game 17-7 in 2022, 29-23 in 2016.
Miami (8-4, 7-1)
Redhawks won last seven games, six of them by 10+ points.
Miami is 1-4 when it scores fewer than 23 points.
Redhawks have 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Miami has 100 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Gabbert has 37 career starts.
Miami is 11-4 ATS last 15 games as a favorite.
Redhawks are 12-4 ATS in last 16 MAC games.
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Miami won this game LY and also in 2019.
Last eight games, Miami is +6 in turnovers.
Over is 5-2-1 in Miami’s MAC games.
Miami (-3.5) beat Ohio 30-20 October 19th.
Redhawks won four of last six series games.
Last four meetings went over the total.
Underdogs won four of last five MAC title games.
SEC championship game (@ Atlanta)
Texas (-2.5) vs Georgia
Texas (11-1, 7-1)
Ten of eleven Texas wins are by 10+ points.
Texas held 11 of 12 opponents under 300 TY.
Longhorns have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Longhorns have 123 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Ewers has completed 67.3% of passes (24 TD’s, 7 INTs)
Last two games, Longhorns ran ball for 250/240 yards.
Texas won the Big X title game LY; this is their 1st year in SEC.
Under Sarkisian, Texas is 17-19 ATS in conference games.
Texas is 13-9 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win.
Longhorns’ only loss was 30-15 at home to Georgia.
Under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.
Georgia (10-2, 7-2)
Georgia won its last three games, scoring 31-59-44 points.
Dawgs were held to 80-59 rushing yards in their two losses.
Last two games, Georgia allowed 226-260 rushing yards.
Dawgs have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Georgia has 87 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Beck started 14 games LY.
Last six years, Georgia is 1-1 ATS as an underdog.
Dawgs are 2-8 ATS in its last ten games.
Georgia is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 SEC games.
Georgia is 5-13-1 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Since 2017, Georgia is 2-4 SU in SEC title games.
Georgia (+4) won 3015 at Texas October 19.
Texas (+12) upset Dawgs 28-21 in a bowl game six years ago.
Underdogs are 3-1 ATS in last four SEC title games.
Sun Belt championship game
Marshall @ Louisiana (-6)
Marshall (9-3, 7-1)
Marshall won its last six games, after a 3-3 start.
Marshall last loss was 24-23 to Georgia Southern; they led 23-3 after 3 quarters.
Thundering Herd has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
Thundering Herd has 57 starts back on offensive line.
Junior QB Braxton has thrown for 1,431 yards (17 TD’s, 2 INTs)
Marshall is 4-0-1 ATS as a road underdog this year.
Under Huff, Marshall is 7-4 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Huff, Thundering Herd is 16-15-1 ATS in conference games.
Under Huff, Thundering Herd is 15-13-1 ATS coming off a win.
Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
Louisiana (10-2, 7-1)
Both of Louisiana’s losses come at home (Tulane/South Alabama)
Cajuns won 7 of last 8 games (5-1 ATS in last six).
ULL has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
Cajuns have 91 starts back on offensive line.
Senior QB Wooldridge had 8 starts before this year.
Louisiana scored 34+ points in five of its last wins.
Under Desormeaux, ULL is 8-6 ATS as a home favorite
Under Desormeaux, ULL is 7-12-2 ATS in games coming off a win.
Last seven games, ULL is +12 in turnovers.
Since 2018, Cajuns are 1-2 in Sun Belt title games.
Louisiana won last two series games, 36-21 (bowl), 23-13.
Last meeting was two years ago.
Favorites covered three of last four Sun Belt title games.
Big 18 championship game (@ Indianapolis)
Oregon (-3.5) vs Penn State
Oregon (12-0, 9-0)
Five of Oregon’s last six wins were by 21+ points.
Ducks held last five opponents under 300 TY.
Oregon has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Ducks have 144 returning starts on the offensive line.
Ducks poached senior QB Gabriel (49 starts at UCF/Oklahoma).
Oregon is 5-3 ATS last eight games as a single digit favorite.
Under Lanning, Ducks are 21-10 ATS overall as a favorite.
Under Lanning, Oregon is 18-9 ATS in conference games.
Under Lanning, Oregon is 21-10 ATS coming off a win.
Under is 6-3 in their last nine games.
This is Oregon’s first year in the Big 18.
Last five years, Ducks were 2-2 in Pac-12 title game.
Penn State (11-1, 8-1)
Penn State won its last four games, scoring 38.5 ppg.
PSU’s only loss was 20-13 at home to Ohio State.
Nittany Lions are 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS on road this season.
Nittany Lions have 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Penn State has 45 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Allar started 13 games last year.
Under Franklin, Penn State is 10-16 ATS as an underdog (0-1 TY).
Penn State is 17-12-1 ATS in last 30 games coming off a win.
Nittany Lions are 8-1 SU/4-5 ATS in conference games TY.
Penn State ran ball for 219+ yards in three of last four games.
Over is 3-0 in their last three games.
Penn State won this game 38-31, eight years ago.
These teams haven’t met in the last five years.
Ohio State/Michigan won this game the last seven years.
Favorites are 3-2 ATS in last five Big 18 title games.
ACC championship game (@ Charlotte)
SMU vs Clemson (-1.5)
SMU (11-1, 8-0)
SMU won last nine games; last two by a combined 71-13.
SMU’s only loss: 18-15 at home to BYU.
Mustangs have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Mustangs have 120 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Jennings started twice LY.
SMU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games.
Under Lashlee, Mustangs are 4-6 ATS as an underdog (2-0 TY).
Under Lashlee, SMU is 16-9 ATS in conference games.
Mustangs are 25-27 ATS in last 52 games coming off a win.
Over is 6-3 in their last nine games.
This is SMU’s first year in the ACC.
SMU won the AAC title game last season, as an underdog.
Clemson (9-3, 7-1)
Clemson are 3-2 in last five games; they lost to South Carolina LW.
Last two games, Tigers allowed 288-267 RY (Citadel had 288)
Clemson is 6-2 ATS in last eight games coming off a loss.
Tigers have 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Tigers have 106 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Klubnik has 14 career starts.
Clemson is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.
Swinney is 19-22 ATS last 41 games as a favorite.
Tigers are 14-11 ATS in their last 25 ACC games.
Clemson is +14 in turnovers in wins, even in losses.
Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Clemson games.
Tigers won last eight appearances in ACC title game.
These teams haven’t met in the last five years.
Favorites are 4-1 ATS in last five ACC title games.