UFC on FOX 5 Free Pick

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SEATTLE, WA (TheSpread) – UFC on FOX 5 takes place on Saturday night. Here is a look at a few picks to consider for this card.

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UFC on FOX 5 will take place from the Key Arena with the main card bouts airing live on FOX at 8PM ET. All picks are made from odds according to oddsmakers at Bovada.lv.

UFC Lightweight Championship – Benson Henderson (17-2) vs. Nate Diaz (16-7)

This is a tough fight to call. Both men have their strengths in this fight and both are fighting at the highest level in their career. Ultimately, I like Diaz to earn the title due to his striking and length. It seems simple to say Henderson should take Diaz to the ground, but that has been an issue for most fighters as of late against Diaz. Look for Diaz to use his reach to win the striking edge. When the fight hits the ground, I see Diaz being more active and being able to work in submissions. Ultimately, I see Diaz catching Henderson in a choke in the fourth round to win his first UFC championship. UFC FREE PICK – Nate Diaz +130

UFC Light Heavyweight Bout – Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (21-6) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (14-1)

The hype train is certainly on Gustafsson right now, but this is a tough fight for him. With it only being three rounds, I expect Shogun to have the cardio to stay in good condition and not gas. I think his striking is more aggressive and he also has better grappling skills that Gustafsson. I don’t see Gustafsson being able to knock out Rua, and that is the only way I see him winning. Give me Rua a victory by decision. UFC FREE PICK – Mauricio “Shogun” Rua +190

UFC Welterweight Bout – Rory MacDonald (13-1) vs. B.J. Penn (16-8-2)

Penn hasn’t fought in nearly a year and he is just 1-3-1 in his last five fights. Penn has struggled as of late against bigger, stronger fighters, and MacDonald is just that. MacDonald is almost a clone of current 170-pound champ, Georges St. Pierre. The two train at the same gym and have the same style. GSP fought Penn a few years back and dominated him with grappling and ground strikes. Look for MacDonald to do the same with his size and strength. I see MacDonald winning by decision. UFC FREE PICK – Rory MacDonald -300

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