Serra vs. Lytle Pick

matt serra vs chris lytle mma prediction

One of the featured bouts of UFC 119 on Saturday night has welterweights Matt Serra and Chris Lytle fighting in a rematch of a 2006 bout.

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Serra won the first meeting in the Ultimate Fighter Season 4 Finale, but Lytle enters this fight as the favorite with a betting line of -135 while Serra has been given a line of +105 according to online sports book Sportsbook.com. Here is a closer look at both fighters heading into this bout, which will take place from Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana at 10PM ET on Pay Per-View.
Chris Lytle (29-17-5):
Strengths
: A veteran of MMA, Lytle is a very tough and durable fighter. Of his 17 losses, 15 come by decision while two come by cuts. He has never been submitted for knocked out in his career. Lytle has a good mixture of striking and submission skills. He is a former boxer, yet 20 of his 29 wins are by submission, including his last two victories.
Weaknesses: Lytle has struggled to beat an elite-level fighter in his career. A win over Serra would the biggest in Lytle’s career. He has primarily struggled with guys that are faster or stronger than him. In the first fight with Serra, he was out-classed on the ground and lost a close decision.
Last Five Fights:
Second round submission win over Matt Brown at UFC 116 on July 3, 2010

First round submission win over Brian Foster at UFC 110 on Feb. 20, 2010

Unanimous decision win over Kevin Burns at The Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale on June 20, 2009

Split decision loss to Marcus Davis at UFC 93 on Jan. 17, 2009

Unanimous decision win over Paul Taylor at UFC 89 on Oct. 18, 2008
Matt Serra (11-6):
Strengths: Far from a perfect fighter, Serra is a former UFC Welterweight champion as his win over Lytle gave him a title shot and then he upset Georges St. Pierre to win the belt. Serra is a great ground and jiu-jitsu fighter and he has some power in his hands. At 5-6, he is compact and low to the ground, which makes him tough to move around.
Weaknesses: Serra tends to think a lot of himself and that can cause him to have too much confidence in his striking. His strength is his ground fighting and if he gets too far away from that, it could lead to a loss. He was able to control Lytle on the ground once before, and he can probably do it again if he sticks to his game plan.
Last Five Fights:
First round TKO win over Frank Trigg at UFC 109 on Feb. 6, 2010

Unanimous decision loss to Matt Hughes at UFC 98 on May 23, 2009

Second round TKO loss to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 83 on April 19, 2008

First round TKO win over Georges St. Pierre at UFC 69 on April 7, 2007

Split decision win over Chris Lytle at the Ultimate Fighter 4 Finale on Nov. 11, 2006Who will win: Lylte has improved since the first meeting, but so has Serra. This fight is near Lytle’s home town, but that isn’t always a good thing. Lylte may press to put on a good show, which could play into Serra’s hands. Look for Serra to use his intelligence and composure to squeak out another close decision victory.
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