Mir vs. Nelson Free Pick
Mir enters UFC 130 as the slight favorite according to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bodog.com as he has odds of -140 to win while Nelson has a money line of +110. UFC 130 takes place from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada and will air live on Pay-Per-View at 9PM ET.
WHY PICK MIR
Frank Mir (14-5) is a former UFC heavyweight champion and one of the best submission fighters in all of MMA. Mir has the ability to put on a slick submission from nearly impossible positions. While making a name for himself as a submission specialist, Mir has developed his striking over the years and has picked up some impressive KO victories along the way. Mir should have the conditioning edge in this contest, as Nelson is not quite in the same shape as Mir.
WHY PICK NELSON
Nelson (15-5) has some serious power in his hands as he has a nice string of knockout victories in the UFC. He has good punching technique and packs more of a punch than Mir. Nelson is also a black belt in jiu-jitsu and may be able to negate Mir’s submission skills. In fact, Nelson does hold a grappling victory over Mir earlier this decade. Mir has struggled in recent year with powerful strikers, as he was KO’d by the likes of Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin, which makes Nelson a dangerous opponent.
WHO TO PICK?
I like the underdog in this contest as I expect Nelson to be able to negate Mir’s grappling and keep the fight standing, which favors Nelson. Mir likes to think his striking is up to par with anyone, but that really isn’t the case with elite-level strikers like Nelson. I look for Nelson to land a big punch in the second round and follow up with a barrage to earn a TKO finish. My pick goes with “Big Country”.
UFC 130 FREE PICK: ROY NELSON +110