Miller vs. Shalorus Free Pick
Miller enters the fight as the favorite to win according to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bodog.com as Miller has odds of -275 while Shalorus has odds of +215. UFC 128 takes place from Prudential Center and will air live on Pay-Per-View at 10PM ET.
WHY PICK MILLER
Miller (19-2) is riding a six-fight win streak and has only lost by decision to the two men that will fight for the UFC Lightweight title at UFC 130, Gray Maynard and Frankie Edgar. Miller has a good mixture of wrestling and submission skills. His striking is lacking, as he has just 2 TKO victories, but his pressure and strength make up for it. Miller has a pretty clear blueprint to victory and that is takedowns and attacking on the ground. Shalorus is making his UFC debut after moving over from the WEC, so first-time octagon jitters could also play into Miller’s favor.
WHY PICK SHALORUS
Shalorus (7-0-2) has never lost, as he has two draws in his career. His strength is his stand up, as he has powerful kicks that he can use to debilitate his opponent’s base. He also has good power in his hands, but his boxing technique isn’t real crisp. We haven’t seen what Shalorus have to fight off his back much in his career, but he does own 1 submission win in his career. We have seen a string of fighters come up short in recent No. 1 contender bouts as well, so Miller may be feeling more pressure coming into this fight, which could throw him off his game.
WHO TO PICK?
I expect Miller to have some trouble getting Shalorus on the ground in the early going, which could open the door for an upset, but ultimately I think Miller’s aggression and heart will lead him to a victory. Miller will push a hard pace for Shalorus to keep up with and that will lead to takedowns and ground-and-pound from Miller. While I don’t see a finish for Miller, my pick is confidently behind him to win.
UFC 128 FREE PICK: JIM MILLER -275