CINCINNAT, OH (The Spread) - Homer Bailey will take the hill this afternoon against the Cubs at 12:35PM ET, which offers a near-perfect scenario for the Reds and bettors.
Latest MLB trends note that the Reds are 10-1 in Bailey's last 11 starts against the Cubs and a perfect 4-0 in his last four home starts versus Chicago. He's also coming off a solid outing on July 5 in which he limited the Brewers to one run over eight innings, although he took the hard-luck loss as the Reds' offense was shut down by Brewers' starter Matt Garza.
According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Reds are -158 money line home favorites today versus the Cubs, who are +146 on the money line. Cincinnati enters play with a 49-42 overall record and is 25-19 at home, while Chicago is 38-52 on the year and a paltry 19-32 on the road. The total, meanwhile, is sitting at 7.5 runs.
Speaking of the total, the over is also 4-0 in Bailey's last four starts versus the Cubs, who are just 10-25 in their last 35 games in Cincinnati and 13-38 in their last 51 games overall versus the Cubs. The over is also 8-2 in Bailey's last 10 starts versus divisional opponents and 10-3-2 in his last 15 starts on Thursday.
The Cubs will counter with Kyle Hendricks today, who will make his major-leageu debut. He has a chance to stick in the rotation with a strong outing, coupled with the fact that Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel were traded to the A's last week.