(The Spread) – If the odds are any indication of how the 2011 Kentucky Derby will play out, we could be in store for a few surprises. Here’s our preview for Saturday’s race at Churchill Downs.
What: The 137th running of the Kentucky Derby
When: Saturday, May 7, 2011
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky
Post Time: Approximately 6:24PM ET
The Favorite: Oddsmakers from online sports book Bodog.com have made Dialed In a +275 money line favorite. He opened the week at +350 and then those odds dropped to +300 when the post positions were drawn on Wednesday. Then, after it was announced that Uncle Mo had been scratched, Dialed In dropped again to +250 on Friday.
The Calvin Borel Effect: The biggest line movement from bettors taking a liking to Twice The Appeal. When the odds were updated on Monday, Twice The Appeal was +3000 on the money line. His odds dropped to +1000 on Friday and now they’re all the way down to +500. One of the reasons why his odds continue to drop is because of his jockey Calvin Borel, whom bettors know has won three of the last four Kentucky Derbys. Casual bettors will probably continue to hammer Twice The Appeal’s odds.
Line Movement: Meanwhile, one other contender who has received some attention leading up to today’s post time is Pants On Fire. He opened the week at +2800 but his odds have steadily dropped since. He was +1800 on Friday and now sits at +600. This is a horse that is as healthy as he’s been in his career and he’s coming off a victory at the Louisiana Derby.
Weather: The weather always seems to be a big factor when it comes to Kentucky Derby betting. Depending on the forecast, there is anywhere from a 30% to 60% chance of rain in the Louisville area on Saturday. It’s not supposed to start precipitating until the mid to late afternoon but even though, the rain should be light. It isn’t expected to storm at Churchill Downs, although it doesn’t sound like it’s going to be a Mr. Rodgers-type day in the neighborhood either.
Post Position Trends: One of the bigger factors that goes into betting on the Kentucky Derby is the post positions. Casual bettors like to base their wagers on the post positions and which gates have had the most success. Since 1900, the rail (Archarcharch) and the No. 5 (Decisive Moment) gate have produced the most winners at the Kentucky Derby (12 apiece). The No. 4 post (Stay Thirsty) has produced 11 winners while the No. 8 (Dialed In) and No. 10 (Twinspired) have racked up 10 wins apiece. The No. 17 (Soldat) and No. 19 (Nehro) post positions have produced zero wins all-time.
For a complete list of odds for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, see below.
2011 Kentucky Derby 137 Odds to Win – Who will win the Kentucky Derby?
Dialed In +275
Twice The Appeal +500
Pants On Fire +600
Mucho Macho Man +900
Midnight Interlude +1000
Stay Thirsty +1400
Master Of Hounds +1700
Animal Kingdom +1800
Brilliant Speed +2000
Watch Me Go +2500
Comma to the Top +3500
Decisive Moment +3500
Derby Kitten +3500