Two teams expected to finish in the basement of their respective divisions will square off tonight in Milwaukee when the Brewers host the Phillies at 8:10PM ET.
According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Brewers are -120 money line favorites over the Phillies, who have odds of +110 to pull off the upset tonight on the road. With Aaron Nola set to face Zach Davies in the pitching matchup, the total currently sits at 8.5 runs.
Nola is 0-2 on he year with a 5.68 ERA, although his 3.15 FIP and his 2.51 xFIP suggest he's pitched much better than his standard stats would suggest. His strikeout (10.89) and walk rates (1.42) are excellent but he had a bad outing his last time out versus the Nationals (who scored seven runs on five hits over five innings) and it inflated his numbers.
Davies has pitched only once this season and he was lit up for six runs on eight hits over 2 1/3 innings in a loss at Pittsburgh. In that game he struck out nobody and walked three while allowing 18 total base runners. If tonight is anything like Davies' first start, then the Phillies should pull off the upset.
OUR PICK: The Brewers have lost 12 of their last 12 home games and are 4-10 in their last 14 games versus a right-handed starter. They're also 3-8 in their last 11 games during Game 1 of a series and have lost nine of 12 home games versus a right-handed starter as well. Davies could bounce back but we have more faith in Nola despite what his standard numbers suggest. Philadelphia offers plenty of value.
FRIDAY MLB FREE PICK: PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES +110