|NFL Picks: Betting Public Says Falcons over Chiefs|
|Written by Anthony Rome|
|Sunday, 21 September 2008 04:00|
Public Likes Falcons
After falling to AFC West rival Oakland 23-8 last week, the Chiefs have lost 11 in a row. They’ll look to avoid their 12th straight loss on Sunday, but they’re also starting their third quarterback in as many games due to injuries. Tyler Thigpen will start under center Sunday after Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard with both knocked out of Kansas City’s two previous losses. Thigpen would benefit greatly from a good outing by running back Larry Johnson, but LJ found little running room last week as the Raiders stacked the box to take away the run.
The Falcons also fell to a division rival last week, losing 24-9 in Tampa. Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan was intercepted twice in the defeat, and running back Michael Turner found less running room against the Bucs than he did in the previous week vs. Detroit. Turner has the opportunity to have a big game against a suspect Chiefs’ defense, but Atlanta can’t fall behind like they did last week. The Falcons’ defense must do a better job getting off the field on third downs, too.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SBG Global have made the Falcons a 6-point favorite and the over/under total has been set at 36.5. Current public betting information shows that 77% of bettors favor Atlanta to cover the 6-point spread.
As long as the Falcons keep Johnson in check, they should have no problem notching their second win of the season. Atlanta played well in Week 1 at home against the Lions, which could spell trouble for the Chiefs. Thigpen looked rough against Oakland last week and faces a better defensive line this Sunday. Falcons defensive end John Abraham leads the league in sacks and will face rookie left tackle Branden Albert. We predict the Falcons over the Chiefs 20-13.
Chiefs at Falcons Point Spread and Over/Under Total
[LB] Napoleon Harris missed last game, %27?%27 - Knee - 09/07/08
(!) [QB] Brodie Croyle is downgraded to expected to miss - Shoulder - 09/07/08
[RB] Kolby Smith missed last game, %27?%27 - Back - 09/07/08
[WR] William Franklin missed last game, %27?%27 - Knee - 09/07/08
[WR] Kevin Robinson expected to miss at least six weeks. - Knee - 08/27/08
[C] Alex Stepanovich missed last game, %27?%27 - Back - 09/07/08
[CB] Von Hutchins IR - Foot - 07/28/08
[S] Thomas DeCoud did not play, "?" - Ankle - 09/08/08
[RB] Thomas Brown IR - Leg - 08/30/08
KANSAS CITY is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) in September games since 1992.
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