Preseason Betting Tips
I know that a plethora of gamblers really dont like playing during the NFL pre-season because they believe it is much too unpredictable especially during the first couple of games because after only one or two series the starters are out and then you are dealing with backups and then the dreaded third and fourth string players.
Well I do believe that I have some handicapping tips that might make the NFL preseason a little easier for all of you.
1 This is probably the most important tip I can give anybody. I am a big believer in money management. All of my selections are rated in units. I believe one should follow the unit rating system to the letter when the regular season starts and I believe that everybody should cut their unit rating system in half when playing the preseason. If you use the bankroll percentage system then use half of what you would normally use in the regular season for preseason action.
2 The first thing I look at during the preseason is what particular teams have employed new coaches. New coaches mean new attitudes. It also means they want to impress the fans right away and with that being said they place a great deal more importance in a preseason game then most normally would.
3 Look at how deep a team is in the important positions. I think this is one of the biggest factors in handicapping a preseason game. I have always looked at teams that are deep in the quarterback and running back position. For example a few years back the Denver Broncos were a team that I had always circled during preseason football. They had Brian Griese starting Steve Beurlein and Gus Frerotte battling for the backup position. These were players that were starters for other teams. That gave them a huge edge when playing in the latter stages of a preseason game. The Broncos also had the luxury of having three 1000 rushers on their team so they were extremely deep in a position that was important when it pertained to the second half.
4 During the second and third week of preseason you should always be made aware of those who have quarterback controversies brewing in camp. If a starter has not been named it is to your advantage when siding with that particular team during a preseason game. The mindset of a coach in determining who is the best fit to be the starting quarterback is to make sure that each player is playing on that level playing field That means the starting units might play a little longer than usual just because that particular coach wants to see how one performs playing behind the best players.
5 In contrast look at those teams who really have nothing to prove. Teams that are already set for the upcoming season really dont want to go all out during the preseason so if you can find those teams they can be an extremely profitable bet-against team. Remember the Buffalo Bills during the reign in the AFC. Marv Levy just didnt care about preseason and it showed as starters were playing one series of downs throughout the entire preseason. He made sure that none of his players got injured before the season started.
These are just a few of the factors you need to look at when handicapping the preseason. Of course as I mentioned earlier in this column do not put the same amount of money on these games as you would on a regular season game. Cut your wagers in half and follow the guidelines that I set up for you and that will give you the upper hand for the preseason and allow you to have a much bigger bankroll when the real season begins.
by: Michael Cash - theSpread.com - Email Us
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