|Long Shots Can Pay Big at Belmont if Big Brown Fails to Deliver Crown|
|Written by Anthony Rome|
|Friday, 06 June 2008 18:00|
Belmont Betting Tips
As we head into third and final jewel of the Triple Crown, there’s a reason the oldest race in America is called the “Test of the Champion”. With 1-¼ miles of track to run, this race has been kind to horses that patiently wait to make their move.
We saw this in 2004 when Smarty Jones dominated the Derby and Preakness, only to lose when his speed and early lead did not bode well against Birdstone’s stamina.
When we broke down the Preakness Stakes, we mentioned to focus on exotics for your payday. The Preakness exacta paid $36.60, the trifecta paid $336.80 and the superfecta paid $1,192.30.
As favorites tend to win and not be kind in the payout department (Big Brown paid a hefty $2.40 to win). History finds similar payday disappointments in the Belmont Stakes, even though 4 of the 13 double-digit winners in the last 75 years have occurred in the last decade. Over the past ten years, the pair mutual has averaged $36.86.
Oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bodog have Big Brown currently listed at 2/7 odds to win the 140th Belmont Stakes. Big Brown’s odds to win the 2008 Triple Crown are currently listed at -350 on the money line according to Bodog oddsmakers.
Unlike in the Preakness, one should ramp up the importance of pedigree, fitness and running style when handicapping. With the distance being the key factor, horses with an inside post should have an advantage. This has been the case in past Belmont Stakes with the top winning post positions being: #1 with 23 wins, #3 with 13 wins and #5 with 13 wins.
Historically if a horse performs poorly in the Kentucky Derby, they tend to skip the Preakness Stakes to prepare for the Belmont. Horseracing experts point to the grueling task of three distinct major races in a short period of time as the main reason why it has been so long since we have seen a Triple Crown winner. This very reason is why six times since 1997 there have been horses that won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes to come up short in the Belmont Stakes.
140th Belmont Stakes Odds to win – Saturday June 7, 2008 – Belmont Park – Elmont, New York
Big Brown 2/7 – Big Brown Belmont Pre-Race Report
Casino Drive 9/2 – Casino Drive Belmont Pre-Race Report
Denis of Cork 10/1 – Denis of Cork Belmont Pre-Race Report
Tale of Ekati 16/1 – Tale of Ekati Belmont Pre-Race Report
Behindatthebar 25/1 – Behindatthebar Belmont Pre-Race Report
Macho Again 40/1 – Macho Again Belmont Pre-Race Report
Mint Lane 50/1 – Mint Lane Belmont Pre-Race Report
Odds on - Will there be a Triple Crown Winner in US Thoroughbred Racing in 2008
Yes - Triple Crown Winner in 2008 –350
No - Triple Crown winner in 2008 +250
Odds provided by SPORTSBETTING.COM
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