Which No. 1 seed will fall soon?

2014 NCAA Tournament March Madness Florida Virginia Arizona

LAS VEGAS, NV (The Spread) – Out of the three No. 1 seeds remaining in the 2014 NCAA Tournament, which one is the most likely to fall this weekend?

View Jay Dotson’s Expert Picks

UVA is the 1 seed in the East, Florida in the South, and Arizona in the West.  Wichita St not surprisingly, was the first No. 1 seed to head home.  Let's take a look at the next No. 1 seed most likely to fall.  

UVA takes on No. 4 seed Michigan State 10pm ET in New York, and is actually listed as a 2 point dog in this one.  I have UVA winning it all in my bracket, and I have to stick to my guns.  I've been championing UVA all season long, and I can see them taking down Michigan State.  UVA has been undervalued by the odds makers all season, and it continues with this one.

Arizona takes on No. 4 seed San Diego State10PM ET in Anaheim, CA, and is listed as a 7.5 point favorite.  Arizona is heavily favored by the public here, and that can sometimes spell trouble for the favorite, but I see Arizona winning this one outright.  San Diego State has looked good so far in the tournament, and may cover the spread, but that's all they will do here. 

Florida takes on No. 4 seed UCLA 9:45pm ET in Memphis, Tennessee.  I see this as being the upset special here.  UCLA has the ability to cause Florida some real trouble in this game.  UCLA has depth plus they have some big bodies to rough up on the Gators.  Florida is the overall No. 1 seed in the tournament, and let's face how often does the heavy favorite 1 seed march into the final four?  

The line movement leads you to believe the odds makers are anticipating Florida having trouble here as well.  The line opened with Florida being 5.5 point favorites, but has since dropped to 4.5 with 60% of the public on the Gators.  There's huge action on the Florida Money Line with over 75% of the public on the Gators side, but Gators opened around -215 with it dropping to around -195.

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