The lack of upsets continued this past week as seven of the top eight teams in the nation (based on my power ratings) made the Elite Eight with North Carolina, Florida, UCLA, Kansas, Georgetown, Ohio State, and Memphis all advancing. The only team in my Top-8 that did not advance was Texas A&M who lost by one point versus Memphis.
The Final Four is now set with a pair of #1 seeds battling a pair of #2 seeds. The defending national champion Florida is still the team to beat as the Gators have a 36% chance of winning their final two games, followed by Georgetown at 24%, Ohio State 22%, and UCLA 18%. These percentages break down to the following “true odds” for those of you looking at the Final Four future prices.
Ohio State 4.5-to-1
The two semi-final games present a pair of interesting matchups as Florida and UCLA meet in a rematch of last year’s national finals. The Bruins are 9-1 SU in all tournament games the past two tournaments with their only loss coming versus the Gators 73-57 last year.
The other semi-final presents a matchup of two of the best big men in the nation with 7’1” Greg Oden and 7’2” Roy Hibbert. It will be interesting to see if Ohio State is comfortable with the half-court style that Georgetown prefers to play.
There are four possible matchups for the national finals on Monday night. Below are the “true odds” of each pairing.
Florida/Georgetown 32% (3.1-to-1)
Florida/Ohio State 30% (3.4-to-1)
UCLA/Georgetown 20% (5.0-to-1)
UCLA/Ohio State 18% (5.4-to-1)
The UCLA vs. Georgetown matchup would be a nightmare for CBS with an extremely ugly halfcourt battle that might struggle to top 100 total points.
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