|Super Bowl XLII Picks: What Patriots and Giants Spread Bettors Need to Know|
|Written by TheSpread|
|Thursday, 31 January 2008 07:40|
Super Bowl Betting Guide
Super Bowl XLII between the New York Giants and New England Patriots is just a few days away now and that means it’s time to get your betting information in order. Here is what those of you who may be placing a friendly wager on Super Bowl XLII need to know before entering into a binding agreement with family, friends or your bookie.
After opening at New England -13.5, the line has dropped to -11. In the first week after betting was opened, the point spread fluctuated around -11 to -12 before finally coming to rest at -12.5, which is where it currently sits. Most of this movement was due to professional bettors jumping on the early number.
“I anticipate that once the public gets involved closer to game time the line will head back up,” said Michael Seaton, General Manager of TheSpread.com. “If you wanted to bet on New England, you had better do it quick because you won’t see a number any better than you see right now,” said Seaton.
We also asked Richard Gardner from online sports book Bodog about what he is seeing from bettors. “Well, the line has gone how we thought it would go”, said Gardner. “A lot of early sharp money has come in on the Giants as Patriots’ backers are starting to wonder if they can cover a double digit number against a team that had them on the ropes in week 17. We still expect to see the public money to come in on the Patriots as we get closer to kickoff.”
Unless you have been living on Mars, you are undoubtedly aware of the New England Patriots march towards history. Passing records, receiving records and point spread deficit records are all part of the Patriots 2007-2008 resume. Despite their stout numbers, the Patriots have struggled to cover the spread in much of the second half of the season, including the playoffs. After starting off 8-0 against the point spread, the Patriots have a big goose egg ATS in their last 5 games starting with their 20-10 win on a -20 point spread against the Jets in week 14. On the season, the New England Patriots are 10-8 against the point spread.
On the other side of the coin, the New York Giants are enjoying a 5-0 against the spread run, which started with a 38-21 victory over Buffalo on a -2 point spread in week 15. Their only point-spread loss in their final eight games was to Washington in week 14. On the season, the New York Giants are 13-6 against the point spread.
We could probably just put “New England Patriots” and skip the rest of this section, but we owe you more than that. Without question though, the nod here goes to the Patriots. New England is putting up staggering numbers this season and the Super Bowl game against the Giants should be no exception.
New England leads the New York Giants in points per game (35.6), points against (only 17.0), passing yards (288.2) and total yards (407.2). The only category that the New York Giants are able to carry is rushing yards per game (130.2) and that is only by 11 yards (New England has 119.1).
At the risk of publishing a boring article, the defensive nod also goes to, you guessed it, the New England Patriots. The Giants again get a small shout out on the rushing yards, only allowing 95.1 per game (while New England is allowing 97.4). But most of the defensive categories again go to the Patriots. New England leads in passing yards allowed per game (only 195.7), as well as total yards allowed per game (293.2).
The Giants do have the edge in some defensive categories, however. The Giants led the league in sacks with 53, although the Patriots did finish second with 47. New England had more team interceptions (19) than the Giants (15), as well as forced fumbles (Patriots had 20 to the Giants 16).
As of our publishing deadline, our NFL Public Betting Information still shows the New York Giants with a commanding lead over the Super Bowl XLII point spread bettors. As of Thursday afternoon, point spread bettors have placed just over 56,000 bets on Super Bowl XLII and 67% of those bets have been placed on the New York Giants.
“It’s still real early, these numbers are all sharp money,” said Seaton. “We anticipate logging around 200,000+ individual point spread bets on Super Bowl XLII, so there is still plenty of time left for the public to get behind the Patriots.”
Professional Handicappers at SpreadExperts.com are all over Super Bowl XLII like white on rice on a paper plate in a snowstorm.
“We obviously can’t give away the farm because we are in the picks business,” said Michael Cash of SpreadExperts.com. “But lets just say you are going to see the majority of our Handicappers on either the Giants or the Over,” said Cash.
“I would be very surprised to see anyone who calls themselves a professional handicapper taking anyone other than the Giants in Super Bowl XLII.”
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