|Favre's great, but don't bank on him as a starter|
|Written by Admin|
|Thursday, 14 August 2008 06:55|
Well, at least that's the case for fantasy football owners.
Even coming off his most productive season since 2004, Favre is just not a good fantasy starter now that he's with the Jets. He's old, he's in a new system and maybe, just maybe, he really isn't as thrilled as he should be about playing football.
That's not to say Favre has no fantasy value, of course. He won't be stumbling to the finish like Joe Namath in Los Angeles or Johnny Unitas in San Diego. He'll be productive enough to take in fantasy drafts, and in fact should be targeted as one of the top backups.
But fantasy players need to guard against getting caught up in the Favre love-fest and drafting him too early, because they just won't be able to bank on him every week.
The gray-bearded Favre, who'll be 38 to start the season, just isn't likely to put up big numbers. A fantasy starter should at least have a chance at 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. Historically, old guys haven't achieved those numbers.
Warren Moon is the exception. Starting the season as a 38-year-old in 1995, his second year with Minnesota, he went for 4,228 yards and 33 touchdowns. But that's it. Moon makes up the entire list of 38-year-olds with big numbers. (Which might explain why Vikings fans were so giddy at the prospect of landing even an aged Favre.)
Of the 68 times in NFL history when a quarterback passed for more than 4,000 yards in a season, Moon was the only one to do so starting the season at 38. Only six have done it starting the season at 35.
QBs have thrown for more than 30 touchdowns 58 times over the years, and again Moon was the only one to do so while starting the year at that age. Only five on the list were 35 or older.
Considering Favre owns the NFL records for most yardage and scores, it's not fair to compare him to just any old 38-year-old. A look at the guys behind him in career passing yardage who played as 38-year-olds shows just how hard it can be.
Dan Marino, second in career passing yardage, had just turned 38 to start his final season and missed five games and had 12 scores and 17 interceptions. Fran Tarkenton, the No. 5 passer just one spot behind Moon, was decent at 38 with over 3,400 yards and 25 scores, but he also launched a career-high 32 interceptions.
Vinny Testaverde, who by some football miracle ranks sixth in career yardage, only played five games in his 38-year-old season. The No. 10 career passer, Joe Montana, had a pedestrian 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions in that so-wrong-looking Chiefs uniform.
If anybody can match Moon's numbers it's Favre, considering last year he was the only guy aside from Moon to ever go over 4,000 yards when starting at age 37.
Yet Favre doesn't seem a good candidate for a super 38-year-old. He lacks the look of one of those yoga-doing, health nuts who magically defy the aging process. He gets up slowly and grimaces a lot, like most beat-up 38-year-olds.
``I felt 38 today,'' Favre said while complaining of arm soreness after a practice Wednesday, a week after the Packers traded him to New York.
Favre's also picking up the Jets' offense on the fly.
Last week Bubba Franks, his longtime tight end in Green Bay and now also a Jet, said Favre was starting to figure out parts of the offense after just a few days.
While that's surely true, it's also hard to take as a critical analysis because it took place early in Favre's first Jets camp, where everybody seemed as hysterical as a tween girl who had just spied a Jonas brother.
It'll probably be at least two or three weeks into the season by the time Favre and his new receivers are somewhat used to each other. Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles are used to fielding Chad Pennington's whiffle ball-like floaters. Favre's passes must look like 95 mph fastballs by comparison.
Also, as blasphemous as it sounds, I have a small question about Favre's heart.
The guy's been talking about whether to quit for years, and he did quit just a few short months ago.
So when you see the endless highlights of Favre's meaningless dozen passes when he makes his preseason debut as a Jet this weekend, and the ensuing ticker-tape parade, try to avoid getting sucked into the excitement.
The warm embrace of the New Yorkers can turn ugly with just a few interceptions, and the last thing your fantasy team needs is a starter who might rather be fishing in Mississippi.