NORTHBROOK, Ill. (STATS) – The top two teams in the New York Life Protection Index may be gone, but four sets of rematches including two huge rivalries should make for one of the most exciting NFL divisional playoff rounds ever.
Last weekend saw the departure of the pass-happy offenses of Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, whose units ranked 1-2 in the final regular season NYLPI. This weekend, we’ll see if the front five of Atlanta’s Matt Ryan and New England’s Tom Brady – the highest ranked remaining pass-protecting lines at Nos. 4 and 5 – can avoid the same fate.
The New York Life Protection Index is a proprietary formula created by STATS LLC which measures pass protection by using metrics such as length of passes, penalties by offensive lineman, sacks allowed and quarterback hurries and knockdowns.
The subplots this weekend are almost as numerous as the data we can look back on, as the four matchups have a combined six regular season games of precedence.
Not surprisingly, the Patriots have the highest single-game protection index (90.8) of those previous matchups. What is surprising is that performance came in their first game against the New York Jets, a 28-14 loss in Week 2. While Brady was uncharacteristically average – two of his four interceptions on the season came in that game, including one by Antonio Cromartie – the statistics point to factors other than line protection and may provide a blueprint for Sunday night success by New York.
The Jets held a distinct 5-minute advantage in time of possession, got stellar play out of Mark Sanchez, outrushed the Patriots by 84 yards and won the turnover battle 3-0 to overcome the fact that Brady was sacked just once, hurried only three times and knocked down twice without his line being called for a hold or false start.
The front five was actually less effective (62.9) in its pass blocking in a 45-3 win Dec. 6, as Brady was sacked three times, hurried twice and knocked down on four occasions. But the probable MVP, playing back at home, reverted back to form with his accuracy (72.4 percent vs. 55.6), spreading out four touchdown passes to four different receivers, and the defense picked off Sanchez three times.
While New York’s pass protection has been solid – it finished the year ranked 11th – the Jets come into the weekend significantly short-handed, as starting right tackle Damien Woody was placed on injured reserve Wednesday with a left Achilles’ tendon injury. Wayne Hunter, who started the last three games of the regular season, will step in.
“The fact he’s kept his head in it, which a lot of times when you are not playing is tough, and he was keeping focused is very good,” said center Eric Mangold. “Wayne showed he’s staying ready and when he’s gotten in there, he’s done a good job.”
Hunter will be tasked with creating holes for LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene and keeping his quarterback upright: Sanchez has been sacked four times and knocked down nine other in the two games against New England.
A contest that somehow matches the intensity of Jets-Patriots will kick things off Saturday afternoon when Baltimore visits Pittsburgh.
The Ravens’ defense was all over Charlie Batch in a 17-14 Baltimore win back in Week 4 – sacking, hurrying or knocking him down 11 times – while the offensive line was also called for five penalties in a horrific (9.7) NYLPI performance. In contrast, the Ravens put together arguably their best pass-blocking game of the season (87.8) given the opponent, especially on a final drive that resulted in a game-winning toss from Joe Flacco to T.J. Houshmandzadeh with 32 seconds remaining.
But Ben Roethlisberger returned after a Week 5 bye to settle the protection down a bit, and the line was much improved (60.8) in a 13-10 victory at Baltimore on Dec. 5, similarly returning to form on the defensive end in sacking Flacco four times, knocking him down six and pressuring the Ravens into four false starts at home.
Neither team has proven to be strong in its pass-blocking – Baltimore ranked a middling 18th in the final index, and the Steelers 26th – but these gritty mirror-image rivals win in other ways, namely with a ball-control offense and hard-nosed defense that have resulted in six straight regular season games being decided by four points or less.
John Harbaugh knows one of the keys with such a small margin of error is getting through Pittsburgh’s offensive line and making Roethlisberger pay.
“We’re going to get after him like we always do. It’s going to be really important,” said the Baltimore coach. “That’s the key to stopping him: You’ve got to get him down. You can’t let him extend plays.”
Making pass protection all the more vital for the Ravens will be the likelihood that they’ll have to rely on it: Only one opposing running back has been able to rush for 100 yards or more against Pittsburgh in its last 50 games. That back was Baltimore’s own Ray Rice, but such a statistic speaks to the Steelers’ dominance against the run.
The other two games this weekend aren’t postseason divisional grudge matches, but intriguing nonetheless. Seattle, coming off a stunning upset over New Orleans that saw it notch a NYLPI of over 90 (95.6) for just the second time all season, makes its way to Chicago.
The Bears ranked dead last (33.1) in the index during the regular season, consistent with its 32.9 output in a 23-20 loss to the Seahawks at Soldier Field on Oct. 17. That game saw Jay Cutler sacked six times, hurried six times and knocked down another 10 as he, not surprisingly, struggled with his accuracy (17 for 39).
Since then, however, Chicago has stabilized its front five and become more balanced with its offensive attack, much like the NFC’s No. 1 seed, Atlanta.
The Falcons, who finished the regular season fourth with a 77.7 index, host Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay, which knocked off Philadelphia last week. In a 20-17 Atlanta win Nov. 28, the two teams were separated by only a few index points as it related to pass protection (78.5 to 72.1, Packers), but Michael Turner’s 110 yards and one touchdown powered the day over a Green Bay attack that saw Brandon Jackson (26 yards) as the team’s leading running back.
The emergence of rookie James Starks last week could even the playing field Saturday night.
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