Bucs vs. Falcons Pick

NFC South rivals will battle in Week 12 when the Atlanta Falcons host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 1:00PM ET on Sunday at the Georgia Dome.

Bet NFL Week 12

The Buccaneers failed to cover as a 10.5-poing underdog in Week 11 when they lost to the Saints, 38-7. The combined score fell under the posted total of 51 points as rookie quarterback Josh Freeman threw for 126 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions for Tampa. Antonio Bryant also hauled in three receptions for 40 yards.

The Falcons covered as a 6.5-point underdog in Week 11, but lost to the Giants 34-31 in overtime. The combined score went over the posted total of 46.5 as Matt Ryan threw for 268 yards with two touchdowns for Atlanta. Running back Jason Snelling also rushed for 76 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries.

Oddsmakers from online sports book SPORTSBETTING.com have made the Falcons 13-point favorites over the Bucs in Week 12. The over/under total for this game has been set at 46 points.

The Falcons are fighting for their playoff lives and desperately need a win this Sunday against an inexperienced Bucs team. They’ll likely get that win, but there’s a good chance they won’t cover the 13-point spread.

Atlanta’s defense has regressed over the past couple weeks and even though Freeman has been mistake-prone, the Falcons can’t force turnovers and therefore Tampa will be allowed to hang around in this contest. Atlanta also hasn’t faced a mobile quarterback this year, which means they could struggle when Freeman gets outside the pocket.

Snelling has proved to be a capable backup while subbing for the injured Michael Turner, but Ryan has struggled over the past month and a half save for his second half performance last week. Tampa’s defense hasn’t been good, but Ryan hasn’t been the same player he was last year or even at the start of this season.

The Falcons will win, but they’ll fair to cover the 13 points. The over looks like a safe bet in this game too, as neither defense has proven that it can stop anybody right now.

Our NFL Week 12 Free Pick for this matchup is: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +13 and OVER 46.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Current Odds

219 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +13 Over 46

220 Atlanta Falcons –13 Under 46

NFL Week 12 Betting Trends

Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

NFL Week 12 Injury Report

TAMPA BAY

[LB] 08/23/2009 - Angelo Crowell IR ( Bicep )

[CB] 09/20/2009 - EJ Biggers IR ( Shoulder )

[OT] 09/06/2009 - Xavier Fulton IR ( Knee )

[P] 08/17/2009 - Josh Bidwell IR ( Hip )

[S] 09/21/2009 - Jermaine Phillips IR ( Thumb )

[FB] 10/20/2009 - B.J. Askew IR ( Neck )

[WR] 11/18/2009 - Antonio Bryant is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. New Orleans ( Knee )

[S] 11/11/2009 - Will Allen IR ( Thumb )

[LB] 11/11/2009 - Rod Wilson IR ( Hamstring )

[DE] 11/18/2009 - Stylez White is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. New Orleans ( None )

ATLANTA

[S] 10/27/2009 - William Moore IR ( Hamstring )

[WR] 08/05/2009 - Harry Douglas IR ( Leg )

[DT] 09/27/2009 - Peria Jerry IR ( Knee )

[RB] 11/15/2009 - Jerious Norwood "?" Sunday vs. NY Giants ( Hip )

[CB] 11/04/2009 - Brian Williams IR ( ACL )

[S] 11/05/2009 - Jamaal Fudge IR ( Knee )

[LS] 11/05/2009 - Mike Schneck IR ( Ribs )

[WR] 11/15/2009 - Brian Finneran "?" Sunday vs. NY Giants ( Knee )

[OT] 11/20/2009 - Sam Baker expected to start Sunday vs. NY Giants ( Ankle )

[RB] 11/16/2009 - Michael Turner is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs. NY Giants ( Ankle )

Bet NFL Week 12

Posted: 11/29/09 7:25AM ET