Patriots vs. Saints Pick
In one of the most anticipated matchups of the NFL season, the New Orleans Saints host the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football in Week 12 at 8:30PM ET.
The Patriots defeated the Jets 31-14 as an 11-point favorite in Week 11, while the combined score pushed the posted total of 45 points. Tom Brady finished with 310 yards and a touchdown for New England, while Laurence Maroney rushed for 77 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries.
The Saints beat the Buccaneers 38-7 as an 11-point favorite in Week 11, while the combined score fell under the posted total of 51 points. Drew Brees threw for 187 yards and three touchdown passes, while Mike Bell rushed for 75 yards and a score in the victory.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made the Saints a 1.5-point favorite over the Patriots in Week 12. The over/under total for Monday’s big game has been set at 56.5 points.
These two teams haven’t played since November of 2005 when the Patriots beat the Saints 24-17 in New England as an 8-point favorite. Before that game, these two teams met in 2001, which resulted in a 34-17 win for the Pats.
New England is 3-1 straight up against New Orleans in recent history, but just 1-3 against the spread. The Patriots are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five games and 4-2 against the number in their last six games on the road.
The Saints are 12-4-1 against the spread in their last 17 games and 7-3 against the number in their last 10 games at home. They’re also 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games when playing New England.
This is the toughest game to predict on the Week 12 schedule. Both teams are playing incredibly well – especially the Saints, who haven’t lost a game all season.
But when it gets down to it, the Saints have nearly looked unbeatable at home this season and at 1.5 points, the game is essentially a pick’em. Brees is playing at an MVP level, the defense (although banged up) has played great under new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and the running game is sound.
Our free pick prediction for this game is the Saints –1.5 and the under. This is a statement game for New Orleans and nobody has come close to beating the Saints in the Superdome. And in a game of this magnitude, the two usually high-scoring teams might play things closer to the vest, which could lead to a low-scoring affair.
Our NFL Week 12 Free Pick for this matchup is: NEW ORLEANS –1.5 and UNDER 56.5.
229 New England Patriots +1.5 Over 56.5
230 New Orleans Saints –1.5 Under 56.5
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England
New Orleans is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing New England
[LB] 08/26/2009 - Tyrone McKenzie IR ( Knee )
[OL] 09/05/2009 - George Bussey IR ( Knee )
[RB] 10/08/2009 - Fred Taylor out at least 6-8 weeks ( Ankle )
[RB] 11/15/2009 - Sammy Morris "?" Sunday vs. NY Jets ( Knee )
[OT] 11/15/2009 - Matt Light "?" Sunday vs. NY Jets ( Knee )
[DE] 11/03/2009 - Jarvis Green out indefinitely ( Knee )
[C] 11/15/2009 - Dan Koppen "?" Sunday vs. NY Jets ( Knee )
[SS] 11/15/2009 - Brandon Meriweather "?" Sunday vs. NY Jets ( Foot )
[DT] 11/15/2009 - Ty Warren "?" Sunday vs. NY Jets ( Knee )
[LB] 11/15/2009 - Eric Alexander "?" Sunday vs. NY Jets ( Groin )
[WR] 11/18/2009 - Brandon Tate IR ( Knee )
[DB] 11/19/2009 - Shawn Springs is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. NY Jets ( Knee )
[OG] 11/16/2009 - Stephen Neal injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. NY Jets ( Head )
[WR] 11/16/2009 - Sam Aiken injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. NY Jets ( Hip )
[LB] 11/16/2009 - Tully Banta-Cain injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. NY Jets ( Groin )
[LB] 11/19/2009 - Rob Ninkovich "?" Sunday vs. NY Jets ( Knee )
[LB] 11/19/2009 - Gary Guyton "?" Sunday vs. NY Jets ( Illness )
[OL] 09/29/2009 - Jammal Brown IR ( Hip )
[TE] 09/05/2009 - Billy Miller IR ( Achilles )
[CB] 08/16/2009 - Reggie Jones IR ( Undisclosed )
[LB] 08/16/2009 - Mark Simoneau IR ( Tricep )
[FS] 09/05/2009 - Chip Vaughn IR ( Knee )
[FB] 09/05/2009 - Olaniyi Sobomehin IR ( Undisclosed )
[FB] 10/29/2009 - Heath Evans IR ( Leg )
[WR] 10/16/2009 - Rod Harper IR ( Knee )
[DT] 11/19/2009 - Sedrick Ellis doubtful Sunday vs. Tampa Bay ( Knee )
[WR] 11/20/2009 - Lance Moore is downgraded to expected to miss Sunday vs. Tampa Bay ( Ankle )
[DT] 11/08/2009 - Kendrick Clancy IR ( Knee )
[PK] 11/15/2009 - Garrett Hartley "?" Sunday vs. Tampa Bay ( Ankle )
[CB] 11/20/2009 - Jabari Greer is downgraded to expected to miss Sunday vs. Tampa Bay ( Groin )
[DB] 11/15/2009 - Darren Sharper "?" Sunday vs. Tampa Bay ( Knee )
[DB] 11/17/2009 - Tracy Porter expected to miss 4-6 weeks. ( Knee )
[C] 11/18/2009 - Jonathan Goodwin "?" Sunday vs. Tampa Bay ( Ankle )
[RB] 11/21/2009 - Reggie Bush is downgraded to expected to miss Sunday vs. Tampa Bay ( Knee )
Posted: 11/30/09 12:00PM ET