Falcons vs. Bucs Week 12 Free Pick
NFL Odds: According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Bucs are 1-point home underdogs versus the Falcons, while the over/under total is currently sitting at 50 points. Atlanta is 9-1 overall and 4-1 on the road this season, while Tampa Bay is 6-4 overall and 3-2 at home.
Line Movement: The Bucs opened as a 1.5-point underdog but the spread was bet down to a pick’em before rising back up to Atlanta –1. The total opened at 48 but it’s been bet up to 48.
Public Betting: Of the wagers currently placed on this game, 78% of NFL public bettors currently favor the Falcons. This information is subject to change leading up to kickoff, however, so make sure you click on the link provided for the most up-to-date NFL public betting numbers.
NFL Playoff Free Pick: Take Atlanta. According to latest NFL trends, the favorite is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams, while the road team is 5-2 against the number in the last seven meetings. The Falcons are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games and 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS loss. The Bucs have been the hottest team in the NFL of late, but they’re due for a letdown. Josh Freeman was excellent in the fourth quarter last Sunday versus the Panthers, but he was brutal in the three quarters prior to finding Vincent Jackson on an excellent touchdown pass to force overtime (following Tampa’s two-point conversation). The Bucs can stop the run defensively but they rank dead last in pass defense. The one thing the Falcons can do is throw the ball thanks to Matt Ryan, so look for Atlanta to bounce back after a brutal effort last Sunday versus Arizona.
2012 NFL WEEK 12 FREE PICK: ATLANTA FALCONS –1