Titans vs. Texans Pick
AFC South rivals clash tonight when the Houston Texans take on the red-hot Tennessee Titans at 8:35PM ET.
The Titans defeated the Bills 41-17 in Week 10 as an 8-point favorite, while the combined score went over the posted total of 41. Chris Johnson rushed for 132 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries in the victory.
The Texans had a chance to beat the Colts in Indianapolis in Week 9, but Kris Brown missed what would have been a game-tying field goal and Houston fell 20-17. The combined score went under the posted total of 50.5 points as Matt Schaub threw for 311 yards and a touchdown. Andre Johnson also hauled in 10 receptions for 103 yards as the Texans covered the 7.5-point spread.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made the Texans 4-point favorites over the Texans in Week 11. The over/under total for this game has been set at 48.5.
Tennessee is 5-2 against the spread in its last seven games when playing Houston and 7-2 straight up in its last nine games when playing the Texans. The total has also gone over in five of the Titans’ last six games when playing on the road against Houston.
Both of these teams are hot coming into this game, as the Titans have won three in a row since switching to Vince Young at quarterback. The Texans lost last week, but have won three of their last four games and have covered in three of their last four games with one push.
We think there’s something off about this point spread given that it’s Houston –4 and not –3. The Titans are hot and the public is starting to back them – so why the four points? Usually when the point spread is a touch off, bettors should be caution going with what seems to be the easier play (i.e. why not take the hot Titans and four points?).
The side will probably be bought down closer to game time, which favors those taking the Texans. Even though Young has given the Titans plenty to cheer about lately, Schaub and Johnson should torch a suspect Tennessee secondary tonight.
This is going to be a good ol’ fashion shootout with both teams trading blows throughout the course of the game. But we think the Texans will eventually prevail and cover the four in the end.
Our NFL Week 11 Free Pick for this matchup is: HOUSTON TEXANS -4 and OVER 48.5.
435 Tennessee Titans +4 (+170 moneyline) Over 48.5
436 Houston Texans –4 (-200 moneyline) Under 48.5
Tennessee is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games
Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Houston is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Tennessee
No significant injuries.
[RB] 08/23/2009 - Jeremiah Johnson IR ( Shoulder )
[OG] 09/21/2009 - Chester Pitts IR ( Knee )
[LB] 10/01/2009 - Chaun Thompson IR ( Knee )
[LB] 10/06/2009 - Khary Campbell IR ( Knee )
[TE] 11/03/2009 - Owen Daniels IR ( Knee )
[TE] 11/16/2009 - James Casey "?" Monday vs. Tennessee ( Knee )
Posted: 11/23/09 12:00PM ET