NFC East rivals square off in “Big D” when the Dallas Cowboys host the Washington Redskins at 1:00PM ET on Sunday.
The Redskins are coming off a surprising 27-17 win over the Broncos as 4-point underdogs in Week 10. The combined score went over the posted total of 36.5 as Ladell Betts rushed for 114 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries for Washington. Quarterback Jason Campbell threw for 193 yards and a touchdown in the victory.
The Cowboys were stunned in Green Bay, 17-7 as a 3-point favorite in Week 10. The combined score fell under the posted total of 48 as quarterback Tony Romo finished with 251 yards with a touchdown and an interception for Dallas. Receiver Roy Williams caught five passes for 105 yards and a touchdown.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SBGGLOBAL.com have made the Cowboys 11-point home favorites over the Redskins in Week 11. The over/under total for this game has been set at 41.5.
Divisional games always tend to be closer than people think, which is why we’re advocating taking the Redskins in this matchup. Washington certainly hasn’t been the standard for how good football is played this season, but the Skins are coming off a gritty win and have the tools to slow down Romo.
One thing the Redskins do well is stop the pass, so if they can load the box with eight defenders and take away Marion Barber and Felix Jones, they’ll be able to keep things close. Forcing Romo to beat them through the air is key, because when he doesn’t have a running game he tends to force things vertically, which leads to turnovers.
Washington has been very good when playing Dallas recently, going 4-1 against the number in its last five games when playing the Cowboys. We don’t expect an outright win from the Skins, but we like getting 11 points in this matchup. Again, division games tend to be closer than people think because the two teams are familiar with each other and if you wait closer to game time, you might even be able to get a number better than 11.
Also, we predict the total to go over the posted number. The total has gone over in four of Dallas’s last five games at home.
Our NFL Week 11 Free Pick for this matchup is: WASHINGTON REDSKINS +11 and OVER 41.5.
421 Washington Redskins +11 Over 41.5
422 Dallas Cowboys –11 Under 41.5
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Washington is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
[QB] 09/05/2009 - Colt Brennan IR ( Hamstring )
[OG] 09/21/2009 - Randy Thomas IR ( Tricep )
[TE] 11/01/2009 - Chris Cooley expected to miss at least 4 weeks ( Ankle )
[OT] 10/27/2009 - Chris Samuels IR ( Neck )
[OT] 11/16/2009 - Mike Williams "?" Sunday vs. Dallas ( Ankle )
[RB] 11/16/2009 - Clinton Portis is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs. Dallas ( Concussion )
[S] 11/11/2009 - Chris Horton IR ( Toe )
[OL] 11/15/2009 - Will Montgomery "?" Sunday vs. Dallas ( None )
[DL] 11/15/2009 - Albert Haynesworth injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Dallas ( Ankle )
[OT] 09/07/2009 - Robert Brewster PUP list ( Pectoral )
[LB] 08/22/2009 - Brandon Williams IR ( ACL )
[LB] 09/06/2009 - Stephen Hodge IR ( Knee )
[CB] 10/28/2009 - Allen Rossum expected to miss 2-4 weeks ( Hamstring )
[OL] 11/16/2009 - Marc Colombo is downgraded to out 6 weeks ( Leg )
[CB] 11/16/2009 - Mike Jenkins is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. Washington ( Arm )
[S] 11/16/2009 - Mike Hamlin expected to miss 2-4 weeks ( Head )
[OT] 11/15/2009 - Flozell Adams injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Washington ( Undisclosed )
[RB] 11/16/2009 - Marion Barber probable Sunday vs. Washington ( Thumb )
Posted: 11/22/09 7:20AM ET