Falcons vs. Giants Pick

Two teams in desperate need of a victory square off in East Rutherford this Sunday when the New York Giants host the Atlanta Falcons at 1:00PM ET.

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The Falcons were defeated 28-19 by the Panthers as a 1-point favorite in Week 10. The combined score went over the posted total of 43.5 as quarterback Matt Ryan threw for 224 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. Michael Turner rushed for 111 yards on nine carries before leaving the game with a high ankle sprain.

The Giants had last week off, but lost to the Chargers 21-20 as a 5-point favorite in Week 9. The combined score fell under the posted total of 48.5 as Eli Manning threw for 215 yards and two interceptions. Receiver Steve Smith caught eight passes for 57 yards and a touchdown in the loss.

Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made the Giants 6.5-point home favorites over the Falcons in Week 11. The over/under total for this game has been set at 46 points.

The road team has dominated this series in years past, winning seven of the last seven games dating back to 1998. The last time these two teams squared off in New York, the Falcons beat Eli and the Giants 14-10 in November of 2004.

There’s no question that the intangibles favor the Giants in this game. With Turner likely out for Sunday, the Falcons will rely on backup running back Jason Snelling to anchor the running game – especially considering Ryan has not played particularly well in over a month. New York is also coming off a bye, some Tom Coughlin’s squad should be well rested.

That said, the Giants are in just as much of a funk as the Falcons are and shouldn’t be giving 6.5-points to any team in the league right now – nevertheless a good Atlanta squad with or without Turner. In fact, the drop off from Snelling to Turner isn’t as dramatic as one would think, only because Jerious Norwood might be back again after missing a month and the pair could form a decent combo.

The key is Ryan playing better against a hungry Giants defense looking to end its losing streak. If he can limit the turnovers and keep the Falcons in the ball game, they should keep this contest close. Atlanta is also 4-2 against the spread in its last six games, so the Falcons have been covering even though they’ve lost three of their last four outings.

Our free pick prediction for this game is the Falcons +6.5 and the under 46. The total is set too high for teams in desperate need to play things tight and limit the scoring.

Our NFL Week 11 Free Pick for this matchup is: ATLANTA FALCONS +6.5 and UNDER 46.

Falcons vs. Giants Current Odds

415 Atlanta Falcons +6.5 Over 46

416 New York Giants –6.5 Under 46

NFL Week 11 Trends

Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
NY Giants are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Atlanta

NFL Week 11 Injuries

All games in this series since 1992

ATLANTA is 4-3 against the spread versus NY GIANTS since 1992

ATLANTA is 4-3 straight up against NY GIANTS since 1992

5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992

Games over the last 3 seasons

NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons

NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

All games played at NY GIANTS since 1992

ATLANTA is 4-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS since 1992

ATLANTA is 4-0 straight up against NY GIANTS since 1992

3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992

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Posted: 11/22/09 7:30AM ET

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