Saints vs. Bucs Pick

NFC South rivals clash this week in Florida when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the surging New Orleans Saints at 1:00PM ET on Sunday.

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The Saints beat the Rams 28-23 to stay undefeated on the season, but they failed to cover as 14-point favorites. The combined score went over the posted total of 50 as Drew Brees threw for 223 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Reggie Bush chipped in 83 yards and a touchdown on six carries and also caught a touchdown pass in the victory.

The Buccaneers couldn’t come up with one final defensive stop and wound up losing to the Dolphins 25-23 as a 10-point underdog in Week 10. The combined score went over the posted total of 43 as rookie QB Josh Freeman threw for 196 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He found Kellen Winslow Jr. early and often throughout the game, connecting with the tight end seven times for 102 yards.

Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made the Saints 11-point favorites over the Buccaneers in Week 11. The over/under total for this game has been set at 51 points.

Even though the Saints have been a juggernaut this season, they’ve failed to cover the spread in each of their last three games – including last week on the road as 14-point favorites against a bad Rams team.

The Buccaneers haven’t given bettors much reason to back them this season, but they have covered the past two weeks and won outright against Green Bay the last time they played at home. The young Bucs are playing with more confidence now that Freeman is under center and we expect another inspired performance this week.

There’s no doubt that Tampa will get up to beat an injury-riddled Saints team on its home turf. It’s a divisional rivalry and even though New Orleans has beaten the Bucs five of its last seven meetings, we think the Bucs will show up for their home crowd on Sunday and cover.

Home underdogs usually make great plays – especially when they’re double-digit underdogs and are playing a division rival. Our free pick prediction for this game is to take the Bucs plus the 11 points, as well as the over 51. Tampa will have a tough time stopping Brees and company, but should move the ball against a depleted New Orleans’ defense.

Our NFL Week 11 Free Pick for this matchup is: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +11 and OVER 51.

Saints vs. Bucs Current Odds

423 New Orleans Saints –11 Over 51

424 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +11 Under 51

NFL Week 11 Trends

New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing New Orleans

NFL Week 11 Injuries

NEW ORLEANS

[OL] 09/29/2009 - Jammal Brown IR ( Hip )

[TE] 09/05/2009 - Billy Miller IR ( Achilles )

[CB] 08/16/2009 - Reggie Jones IR ( Undisclosed )

[LB] 08/16/2009 - Mark Simoneau IR ( Tricep )

[FS] 09/05/2009 - Chip Vaughn IR ( Knee )

[FB] 09/05/2009 - Olaniyi Sobomehin IR ( Undisclosed )

[FB] 10/29/2009 - Heath Evans IR ( Leg )

[WR] 10/16/2009 - Rod Harper IR ( Knee )

[DT] 11/02/2009 - Sedrick Ellis expected to miss 4-6 weeks ( Knee )

[WR] 11/15/2009 - Lance Moore "?" Sunday vs. Tampa Bay ( Ankle )

[DT] 11/08/2009 - Kendrick Clancy IR ( Knee )

[PK] 11/15/2009 - Garrett Hartley "?" Sunday vs. Tampa Bay ( Ankle )

[CB] 11/15/2009 - Jabari Greer "?" Sunday vs. Tampa Bay ( Groin )

[DB] 11/15/2009 - Darren Sharper "?" Sunday vs. Tampa Bay ( Knee )

[DB] 11/17/2009 - Tracy Porter expected to miss 4-6 weeks. ( Leg )

TAMPA BAY

[LB] 08/23/2009 - Angelo Crowell IR ( Bicep )

[CB] 09/20/2009 - EJ Biggers IR ( Shoulder )

[OT] 09/06/2009 - Xavier Fulton IR ( Knee )

[P] 08/17/2009 - Josh Bidwell IR ( Hip )

[S] 09/21/2009 - Jermaine Phillips IR ( Thumb )

[FB] 10/20/2009 - B.J. Askew IR ( Neck )

[WR] 11/15/2009 - Antonio Bryant "?" Sunday vs. New Orleans ( Knee )

[S] 11/11/2009 - Will Allen IR ( Thumb )

[LB] 11/11/2009 - Rod Wilson IR ( Hamstring )

[DE] 11/16/2009 - Stylez White "?" Sunday vs. New Orleans ( Rest )

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Posted: 11/22/09 7:25AM ET

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