Bolts vs. Broncos Pick
The battle for sole possession of first place in the AFC West takes place on Sunday at 4:15PM ET when the Denver Broncos host the San Diego Chargers.
The red-hot Chargers beat the Eagles 31-23 as a 1.5-point favorite in Week 10, as the combined score went over the posted total of 47 point. Quarterback Philip Rivers threw for 231 yards and two touchdowns, while running back LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 96 yards and two scores on 24 carries.
The Broncos lost to the Redskins 27-17 as a 4-point favorite in Week 10, while the combined score in that game went over the posted total of 36.5. Kyle Orton threw for 193 yards with two touchdowns before leaving the game with an ankle injury. Brandon Marshall also caught five passes for 134 yards and two touchdowns.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made the Chargers 5-point road favorites over the Broncos in Week 11. The over/under total for this game has been set at 42 points.
Denver is 0-2-3 against the spread in its last five games when playing at home against San Diego and 1-5-1 against the number in its last seven games when playing San Diego. The Broncos are also 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games at home.
Chris Simms is expected to start for the Broncos today in place of the injured Orton. That’s not good for Denver considering the way Simms struggled last week against Washington. Maybe with more preparation time, he’ll be better on Sunday but we highly doubt it.
San Diego is one of the hottest teams in the league right now and should roll on Sunday. They’ve already proven that they can win on the road in a hostile environment when they beat the Giants earlier this month, so the fact that this game is in Denver doesn’t mean as much. Rivers should be able to move the ball against a Broncos defense that expects to be on the field a lot when the offense struggles.
Our free pick prediction for this game is San Diego –5 and the under 42. The total has gone under in nine of Denver’s last 10 games at home.
Our NFL Week 11 Free Pick for this matchup is: SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -5 and UNDER 42.
431 San Diego Chargers –5 Over 42
432 Denver Broncos +5 Under 42
San Diego is 2-3-3 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Denver
San Diego is 4-18 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Denver is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
[C] 11/19/2009 - Nick Hardwick is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs. Denver ( Ankle )
[NT] 09/19/2009 - Jamal Williams IR ( Tricep )
[LB] 10/20/2009 - Antwan Applewhite IR ( Hamstring )
[LB] 11/15/2009 - Tim Dobbins "?" Sunday vs. Denver ( Knee )
[LB] 11/18/2009 - Jyles Tucker IR ( Ankle )
[T] 11/19/2009 - Jeromey Clary is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. Denver ( Leg )
[LB] 08/05/2009 - Nick Greisen IR ( Knee )
[DT] 08/23/2009 - J'vonne Parker IR ( Knee )
[DL] 11/15/2009 - Ryan McBean "?" Sunday vs. San Diego ( Knee )
[OL] 11/03/2009 - Ryan Harris expected to miss at least 3 weeks ( Toe )
[FB] 11/15/2009 - Peyton Hillis "?" Sunday vs. San Diego ( Personal )
[S] 11/15/2009 - Josh Barrett "?" Sunday vs. San Diego ( Hamstring )
[QB] 11/18/2009 - Kyle Orton is upgraded to expected to be available Sunday vs. San Diego ( Ankle )
[WR] 11/19/2009 - Brandon Marshall probable Sunday vs. San Diego ( Neck )
[QB] 11/19/2009 - Chris Simms is expected to start Sunday vs. San Diego ( None )
[RB] 11/19/2009 - Correll Buckhalter "?" Sunday vs. San Diego ( Knee )
[RB] 11/19/2009 - LaMont Jordan "?" Sunday vs. San Diego ( Undisclosed )
Posted: 11/22/09 3:15PM ET