The NFL kicks off its second week of Thursday Night Football when the Carolina Panthers host the Miami Dolphins at 8:20PM ET.
The Dolphins came from behind in the final minutes to pull off a 25-23 win over the Buccaneers in Week 10, although they failed to cover as 10-point favorites. The combined score went over the posed total of 43 as quarterback Chad Henne threw for 175 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Ricky Williams rushed for 102 yards on 20 carries while replacing the injured Ronnie Brown.
The Panthers got a huge win in Week 10 by beating division rival Atlanta, 28-19. Jonathan Stewart rushed for 82 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries, while Steve Smith hauled in four passes for 34 yards and two scores. The Panthers covered as 1.5-point underdogs and the combined score went over the posted total of 42.5.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SBGGLOBAL.com have made the Panthers 3-point favorites over the Dolphins on Thursday night. The over/under total for this game has been set at 43 points.
The Dolphins have controlled the head-to-head battle between these two teams, winning and covering in three of the last three matchups. The last time these two teams met was in September of 2005 when the Dolphins edged the Panthers, 27-24.
Brown’s injury brings another element to this game than if he were healthy. The trends show that Miami is a solid bet for Thursday night, but with Brown out they might struggle. Still, we suggest following the recent history between these two teams and advice taking Miami and the points.
The Panthers haven’t played with consistency all season. In mid-October they beat the Buccaneers 28-21, then followed up that performance with a 20-9 home loss to the woeful Bills. They beat the Cardinals 34-21 in Arizona three weeks ago, then fell in New Orleans 30-20 the following week. (Granted, the Saints have beaten everyone this year.)
Last week they beat the Falcons in an emotional victory and now have to turn around four days later and get up for a Dolphins team that has been inconsistent themselves.
We think Williams will keep Miami’s running game afloat in Browns’ absence and the Dolphins will be able to control this game on the ground. Carolina hasn’t been good against the run this season and excellent vs. the pass, so there’s no reason for Miami to get away from its ground attack.
Our free pick prediction for this game is Miami +3 and the under 42.5. Both teams will be looking to keep the ball on the ground and keep the clock rolling.
Our NFL Week 11 Free Pick for this matchup is: MIAMI DOLPHINS +3 and UNDER 42.5.
305 Miami Dolphins +3 Over 43
306 Carolina Panthers –3 Under 43
All games in this series since 1992
MIAMI is 3-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA since 1992
MIAMI is 3-0 straight up against CAROLINA since 1992
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992
Games over the last 3 seasons
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
All games played at CAROLINA since 1992
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA since 1992
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA since 1992
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992
[QB] 09/28/2009 - Chad Pennington IR ( Shoulder )
[CB] 10/27/2009 - Will Allen IR ( Knee )
[RB] 10/20/2009 - Patrick Cobbs IR ( Knee )
[OG] 11/15/2009 - Justin Smiley "?" Thursday vs. Carolina ( Shoulder )
[RB] 11/16/2009 - Ronnie Brown is downgraded to doubtful Thursday vs. Carolina ( Foot )
[TE] 11/17/2009 - Anthony Fasano doubtful Thursday vs. Carolina ( Hip )
[FS] 11/17/2009 - Gibril Wilson "?" Thursday vs. Carolina ( Hamstring )
[DT] 11/17/2009 - Paul Soliai "?" Thursday vs. Carolina ( Ankle )
[DT] 08/14/2009 - Ma'ake Kemoeatu IR ( Achilles )
[QB] 09/14/2009 - Josh McCown IR ( Knee )
[OG] 08/31/2009 - CJ Davis IR ( Ankle )
[S] 09/01/2009 - Nate Salley IR ( Knee )
[FB] 11/17/2009 - Brad Hoover expected to miss Thursday vs. Miami ( Ankle )
[DL] 09/21/2009 - Louis Leonard IR ( Ankle )
[FS] 11/17/2009 - Charles Godfrey doubtful Thursday vs. Miami ( Ankle )
[LB] 11/09/2009 - Thomas Davis IR ( Knee )
[OL] 11/17/2009 - Jordan Gross IR ( Leg )
[WR] 11/16/2009 - Steve Smith probable Thursday vs. Miami ( Ribs )
[DE] 11/17/2009 - Charles Johnson is downgraded to doubtful Thursday vs. Miami ( Pectoral )
[RB] 11/17/2009 - Jonathan Stewart is downgraded to doubtful Thursday vs. Miami ( Achilles )
[DT] 11/17/2009 - Damione Lewis "?" Thursday vs. Miami ( Shoulder )
Posted: 11/19/09 12:00PM ET