Jaguars vs. Jets Pick
Two 4-4 teams desperately needing a win to stay competitive in the AFC playoff race will square off in Week 10 when the New York Jets host the Jacksonville Jaguars at 1:00 PM ET.
The Jaguars improved to 4-4 on the season after defeating the Chiefs 24-21 as a 7-point favorite in Week 9. The combined score went over the posted total of 41.5 points, as running back Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 97 yards and a touchdown on 29 carries. Receiver Mike Sims-Walker also hauled in six passes for 147 yards with a touchdown in the win.
The Jets were off last week, but fell to Miami 30-25 in Week 8 as a 3.5-point home favorite. Mark Sanchez threw for 265 yards with two touchdown passes and a touchdown run in the win, while Dustin Keller caught eight passes for 76 yards and a touchdown. The combined score went over the posted total of 40.5.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made the Jets 7-point favorites over the Jaguars in Week 10. The over/under total for this game has been set at 40.5.
The Jaguars have good trends against the Jets; they’re 5-0 against the spread in their last five games when playing the Jets and 4-1 straight up in their last five games when playing New York. The Jets are also 1-4 against the spread in their last five games.
The inexperienced Jaguars have risen to the challenge several times this season, which is why we feel good about taking them with the points on the road. David Garrard doesn’t make many mistakes and Jones-Drew should have some success against a Jets’ front seven that will once again be without defensive tackle Kris Jenkins, who is out for the year with an injury.
Sanchez has battled some rookie struggles this season and if he doesn’t have a running game to help take the pressure off him, he tends to fold under pressure. Jacksonville’s run defense isn’t great, but we think Jack Del Rio and his coaching staff will game plan to shut down Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene in order to force Sanchez to beat them.
We don’t expect the Jags to walk into East Rutherford and steal a win. But the Jets are too inconsistent to be a touchdown favorite over anyone right now, especially a team with an identical record and that has played well at times this season.
Our free pick prediction for the total is the over. The total has gone over in five of Jacksonville’s last 7 games and in four of the Jets’ last six games.
Our NFL Week 10 Free Pick for this matchup is: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +7 and OVER 40.5.
215 Jacksonville Jaguars +7 Over 40.5
216 New York Jets –7 Under 40.5
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
NY Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
NY Jets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
[DL] 09/15/2009 - Rob Meier out for season ( Shoulder )
[DE] 09/18/2009 - Reggie Hayward IR ( Leg )
[CB] 09/01/2009 - Don Carey IR ( Shoulder )
[LB] 08/31/2009 - Jeremy Mincey IR ( Hand )
[WR] 09/21/2009 - Troy Williamson IR ( Shoulder )
[OT] 11/08/2009 - Maurice Williams "?" Sunday vs. NY Jets ( Knee )
[CB] 11/08/2009 - Scott Starks IR ( Hamstring )
[WR] 11/08/2009 - Ernest Wilford injured last game, "?" Sunday vs NY Jets ( Leg )
[CB] 11/11/2009 - Lito Sheppard is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. Jacksonville ( Quad )
[DT] 10/20/2009 - Kris Jenkins IR ( Knee )
[RB] 10/26/2009 - Leon Washington IR ( Ankle )
[WR] 11/08/2009 - Brad Smith "?" Sunday vs. Jacksonville ( Quad )
Posted: 11/15/09 7:00AM ET