NFC South rivals clash in Week 10 when the Carolina Panthers host the Atlanta Falcons at 1:00PM ET.
The Falcons defeated the Redskins 31-17 in Week 9 as an 8.5-point favorite, while the combined score went over the posted total of 41 points. Michael Turner rushed for 166 tards with two touchdowns on 18 carries for the Falcons, while quarterback Matt Ryan threw for 135 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
The Panthers lost to the Saints 30-20 in Week 9, but covered the 12-point spread as an underdog. DeAngelo Williams rushed for 149 yards and scored two touchdowns on 21 carries for Carolina, while Jake Delhomme threw for 201 yards. The combined score went over the posted total of 41 points.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made the Falcons 2-point road favorites over the Panthers in Week 10. The over/under total for this game has been set at 43.5.
The Falcons are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games, while the Panthers are just 1-4 against the number in their last five games at home. The total has gone under in five of Atlanta’s last five games on the road against Carolina.
This is a small trap game. The public will look at this game and be drawn to the Falcons since they’re only giving up two points and are clearly the better team. But the Panthers are a solid bet being a home underdog and should run the ball with success against a suspect Atlanta run defense.
The key for Carolina will be stopping the Turner and the Falcons’ running game. Ryan hasn’t played well in weeks and if the Panthers can force him to beat them through the air, we like Carolina to win outright.
Take the Panthers and the points, as well as the under 43.5.
Our NFL Week 10 Free Pick for this matchup is: CAROLINA PANTHERS +2 and UNDER 43.5.
227 Atlanta Falcons –2 Over 43.5
228 Carolina Panthers +2 Under 43.5
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
Carolina is 7-14-4 ATS in its last 25 games when playing Atlanta
Carolina is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games when playing Atlanta
[S] 10/27/2009 - William Moore IR ( Hamstring )
[WR] 08/05/2009 - Harry Douglas IR ( Leg )
[DT] 09/27/2009 - Peria Jerry IR ( Knee )
[RB] 11/08/2009 - Jerious Norwood "?" Sunday vs. Carolina ( Hip )
[CB] 11/04/2009 - Brian Williams IR ( ACL )
[DT] 11/08/2009 - Thomas Johnson "?" Sunday vs. Carolina ( Calf )
[S] 11/05/2009 - Jamaal Fudge IR ( Knee )
[LS] 11/05/2009 - Mike Schneck IR ( Ribs )
[WR] 11/08/2009 - Brian Finneran injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Carolina ( Knee )
[OT] 11/09/2009 - Sam Baker injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Carolina ( Ankle )
[DT] 08/14/2009 - Ma'ake Kemoeatu IR ( Achilles )
[QB] 09/14/2009 - Josh McCown IR ( Knee )
[OG] 08/31/2009 - CJ Davis IR ( Ankle )
[S] 09/01/2009 - Nate Salley IR ( Knee )
[FB] 11/08/2009 - Brad Hoover "?" Sunday vs. Atlanta ( Ankle )
[DL] 09/21/2009 - Louis Leonard IR ( Ankle )
[TE] 11/08/2009 - Dante Rosario "?" Sunday vs. Atlanta ( Knee )
[WR] 11/11/2009 - Muhsin Muhammad is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. Atlanta ( Knee )
[FS] 11/08/2009 - Charles Godfrey "?" Sunday vs. Atlanta ( Ankle )
[FB] 11/11/2009 - Tony Fiammetta is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. Atlanta ( Concussion )
[LB] 11/09/2009 - Thomas Davis IR ( Knee )
[RB] 11/11/2009 - Ryan Kalil probable Sunday vs. Atlanta ( Knee )
Posted: 11/15/09 7:30AM ET