Bears vs. 49ers Pick
The NFL kicks off its Thursday Night Football schedule tonight when the San Francisco 49ers host the struggling Chicago Bears.
The Bears were absolutely obliterated by the Cardinals last week, 41-21 as a 2-point home favorite. The combined score went over the posted total of 45 points as Jay Cutler threw for 369 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. Devin Hester also hauled in six passes for 94 yards in the loss.
The 49ers were also defeated last week, 34-27 by the Titans. The Niners failed to cover as a 4.5-point favorite, while the combined score went over the posted total of 41 points. Alex Smith threw for 284 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions for San Fran, while Frank Gore finished with 82 yards rushing and a touchdown on 15 carries.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SBGGLOBAL.com have made the 49ers 3-point favorites over the Bears for Thursday’s game. The over/under total for this matchup has been set at 43.5.
The Bears are an absolute mess right now: They can’t run the football, they can’t stop the pass and injuries continue to pile up. Lovie Smith is struggling to get his team back on the right track and if it weren’t for a win over the hapless Browns two weeks ago, Chicago would be marred in a bad losing streak.
On the flip side, the 49ers have struggled as well while losing four in a row. But they’ve been competitive the past three weeks and have received a spark from Smith, who replaced Shaun Hill in a loss to Houston three weeks ago.
Even though they don’t have a quick-strike offense, we think Smith will be able to move the ball on Chicago’s porous secondary. Gore might not have a ton of running room at his disposal, but Smith and the passing game could open things up for him in the second half.
San Fran is 9-3 against the spread in its last 12 games when playing Chicago and 5-0 againt the number in its last five games when playing at home against the Bears. For whatever reason, the Bears have had a tough time covering the spread against the Niners, especially in San Francisco.
The over has also covered in four of the 49ers’ last five games when playing Chicago, thus our free pick for the total is the OVER. Sometimes when two struggling teams face each other, it tends to be a shootout.
Our NFL Week 10 Free Pick for this matchup is: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -3 and OVER 43.5.
105 Chicago Bears +3 (+155 moneyline) Over 43.5
106 San Francisco 49ers –3 (-175 moneyline) Under 43.5
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games
Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
[RB] 09/06/2009 - Kevin Jones IR ( Ankle )
[LB] 09/14/2009 - Brian Urlacher IR ( Wrist )
[DE] 09/06/2009 - Henry Melton IR ( Ankle )
[LB] 10/21/2009 - Pisa Tinoisamoa IR ( Knee )
[S] 11/08/2009 - Al Afalava injured last game, "?" Thursday vs. San Francisco ( Shoulder )
[RB] 11/09/2009 - Garrett Wolfe expected to miss 2-4 weeks ( Back )
[CB] 11/09/2009 - Charles Tillman is upgraded to probable Thursday vs. San Francisco ( Shoulder )
[S] 11/09/2009 - Kevin Payne injured last game, "?" Thursday vs. San Francisco ( Back )
[CB] 07/30/2009 - Walt Harris IR ( ACL )
[LB] 10/19/2009 - Jeff Ulbrich IR ( Concussion )
[CB] 11/08/2009 - Reggie Smith "?" Thursday vs. Chicago ( Groin )
[OT] 10/27/2009 - Tony Pashos IR ( Shoulder )
[OT] 11/03/2009 - Joe Staley expected to miss at least 6 weeks ( Knee )
[CB] 11/02/2009 - Nate Clements expected to miss 6-8 weeks ( Shoulder )
[DE] 11/03/2009 - Demetric Evans expected to miss at least 3 weeks ( Shoulder )
[TE] 11/09/2009 - Delanie Walker injured last game, "?" Thursday vs. Chicago ( Knee )
[RB] 11/09/2009 - Glen Coffee is downgraded to expected to miss Thursday vs. Chicago ( Neck )
[RB] 11/09/2009 - Frank Gore probable Thursday vs. Chicago ( Eye )
Posted: 11/12/09 3:20PM ET