Packers at Bucs Pick
The Josh Freeman era is set to begin in Tampa when the Buccaneers host the Green Bay Packers in Week 9.
The Packers were defeated 38-26 by the Vikings in Week 8. Aaron Rodgers threw for 287 yards with three touchdowns, while Greg Jennings caught eight passes for 88 yards with a touchdown as Green Bay failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites.
The Buccaneers had their bye last week (which was much-needed), but was thumped by the Patriots 35-7 as a 15.5-point underdog in Week 7. Josh Johnson threw for 156 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions, while Antonio Bryant caught two passes for 51 yards and a touchdown.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SBGGLOBAL.com have made the Packers 10-point favorites over the Bucs in Week 9. The over/under total for this game has been set at 43.5 points.
Tampa Bay is 1-8 against the spread in its last nine games and 0-5 ATS in its last five games at home. On the other side, Green Bay is 14-6-1 against the spread in its last 21 games on the road and 3-1 ATS vs. the Bucs in its last three games.
The Packers certainly didn’t endear themselves to many bettors last week in their loss to the Vikings, but one thing they have done is beat bad teams. They had no trouble covering against the Rams, Lions and Browns earlier this year, and shouldn’t have much issues with the Bucs this Sunday.
Freeman has a lot of talent and is a nice young prospect. But most rookie quarterbacks struggle in their debuts and we don’t expect anything different from Freeman in his first start. We expect plenty of three-and-outs and turnovers, and don’t think Tampa’s offense will be able to move the ball. So as long as Green Bay doesn’t turn the ball over, it should cover the 10-point spread with little problems.
Tampa’s defense can’t stop Rodgers’ and the Packers’ potent passing attack, and they don’t rush the passer well enough to take advantage of Green Bay’s terrible offensive line.
Our free pick for the total is the under. The total has gone under in four of Green Bay’s last five games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay.
Our NFL Week 9 Free Pick for this matchup is: GREEN BAY PACKERS -10 and UNDER 43.5.
411 Green Bay Packers –10 (-550 moneyline) Over 43.5
412 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 (+375 moneyline) Over 43.5
Green Bay is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
Green Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
[S] 09/06/2009 - Charlie Peprah IR ( Knee )
[TE] 09/06/2009 - Evan Moore IR ( Undisclosed )
[CB] 09/06/2009 - Pat Lee IR ( Knee )
[DL] 09/05/2009 - Justin Harrell IR ( Back )
[WR] 10/26/2009 - Brett Swain IR ( Knee )
[C] 11/01/2009 - Jason Spitz "?" Sunday vs. Tampa Bay ( Back )
[KR/CB] 10/06/2009 - Will Blackmon IR ( Knee )
[FB] 11/01/2009 - Korey Hall "?" Sunday vs. Tampa Bay ( Calf )
[RB] 10/21/2009 - DeShawn Wynn IR ( Knee )
[TE] 11/01/2009 - Jermichael Finley "?" Sunday vs. Tampa Bay ( Knee )
[WR] 11/02/2009 - Jordy Nelson is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs. Tampa Bay ( Knee )
[FS] 11/01/2009 - Nick Collins injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Tampa Bay ( Ankle )
[LB] 11/02/2009 - Brandon Chillar expected to miss at least 2 weeks ( Hand )
[S] 11/02/2009 - Derrick Martin injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Tampa Bay ( Concussion )
[QB] 11/02/2009 - Aaron Rodgers probable Sunday vs. Tampa Bay ( Foot )
[WR] 11/04/2009 - Donald Driver "?" Sunday vs. Tampa Bay ( Shoulder )
[LB] 08/23/2009 - Angelo Crowell IR ( Bicep )
[CB] 09/20/2009 - EJ Biggers IR ( Shoulder )
[OT] 09/06/2009 - Xavier Fulton IR ( Knee )
[P] 08/17/2009 - Josh Bidwell IR ( Hip )
[DE] 11/01/2009 - Kyle Moore "?" Sunday vs. Green Bay ( Groin )
[S] 09/21/2009 - Jermaine Phillips IR ( Thumb )
[QB] 11/01/2009 - Josh Freeman is expected to start Sunday vs. Green Bay ( None )
[FB] 10/20/2009 - B.J. Askew IR ( Neck )
[RB] 11/04/2009 - Clifton Smith is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. Green Bay ( Concussion )
Posted: 11/8/09 7:20AM ET