Jags vs Chiefs Pick
The Kansas City Chiefs hope to put their team turmoil behind them this Sunday when they travel south to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars at 1:00PM ET.
The Chiefs had to suspend running back Larry Johnson for comments he made following the team’s embarrassing loss to the Chargers in Week 7. The Chiefs failed to cover as 5.5-point spread underdogs in that game, losing to San Diego 37-7 as Matt Cassel threw for only 97 yards and three interceptions.
The Jaguars were also whipped in their last a game, which was a 30-13 defeat at the hands of the Titans in Week 8. Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 177 yards with two touchdowns on only eight carries, but David Garrard threw for only 139 yards with two interceptions as Jacksonville failed to cover as a 3-point spread dog.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SBGGLOBAL.com have made the Jaguars 7-point spread favorites over the Chiefs in Week 9. The over/under total for this matchup has been set at 42 points.
Neither of these teams have very strong trend numbers against each other, although Jacksonville does hold a recent ATS record of 4-2-1 against Kansas City and covered last time these two teams met in October of 2007. The Jags beat the Chiefs that day in Kansas City to cover the 2-point spread.
The Jaguars have been the model of inconsistency so far this year and haven’t played well in three games. They were thumped last week by the Titans, barely squeaked by a bad Rams team and were absolutely destroyed by the Seahawks 41-0 in Seattle on October 11. Why this team is giving any opponent a full touchdown point spread is beyond us, even when that opponent is the Chiefs.
As their 1-6 record would indicate, the Chiefs haven’t played well this season either. But the good news for bettors is that they have covered two of their last three games, all of which as underdogs.
For whatever reason, head coach Todd Haley blindly stuck by Johnson this year, even though the running back has been highly unproductive. With him out of the way, Charles has the opportunity to flash some of his big play potential and we think he will. As long as he holds onto the ball, we think he’ll keep a well-rested Kansas City team in the game. We also think Dwayne Bowe presents a mismatch for the Chiefs against an inexperienced and inconsistent Jacksonville secondary.
Our free pick is KC in this matchup and suggest taking the under because the trends favor it in this matchup. The total has gone under in five of Kansas City’s last seven games when playing Jacksonville.
Our NFL Week 9 Free Pick for this matchup is: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +7 and UNDER 42.
403 Kansas City Chiefs +7 Over 42
404 Jacksonville Jaguars –7 Under 42
Kansas City is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
Kansas City is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Jacksonville is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home
[WR] 09/01/2009 - Devard Darling IR ( Knee )
[RB] 09/01/2009 - Kolby Smith on PUP list ( Knee )
[S] 11/04/2009 - Jarrad Page IR ( Shoulder )
[WR] 11/01/2009 - Lance Long injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Jacksonville ( Head )
[RB] 11/01/2009 - Larry Johnson expected to miss Sunday vs. Jacksonville ( Disciplinary )
[RB] 10/15/2009 - Jackie Battle IR ( Shoulder )
[C] 11/01/2009 - Rudy Niswanger injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Jacksonville ( Knee )
[OT] 11/01/2009 - Branden Albert "?" Sunday vs. Jacksonville ( Ankle )
[S] 11/04/2009 - Jon McGraw doubtful Sunday vs. Jacksonville ( Undisclosed )
[DL] 09/15/2009 - Rob Meier out for season ( Shoulder )
[DE] 09/18/2009 - Reggie Hayward IR ( Leg )
[CB] 09/01/2009 - Don Carey IR ( Shoulder )
[LB] 08/31/2009 - Jeremy Mincey IR ( Hand )
[WR] 09/21/2009 - Troy Williamson IR ( Shoulder )
[S] 11/01/2009 - Sean Considine "?" Sunday vs. Kansas City ( Groin )
[DE] 11/01/2009 - Greg Peterson "?" Sunday vs. Kansas City ( Knee )
[OT] 11/01/2009 - Maurice Williams "?" Sunday vs. Kansas City ( Knee )
[CB] 11/04/2009 - Rashean Mathis is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. Kansas City ( Finger )
Posted: 11/8/09 7:00AM ET