Skins at Falcons Pick
The Atlanta Falcons look to halt their two-game losing streak when they host the Washington Redskins at 1:00PM ET at the Georgia Dome on Sunday.
Washington was off last week, but suffered a 27-17 loss to the Eagles on Monday Night Football in Week 7. Jason Campbell was 29-of-43 for 284 yards with two touchdowns and an interception as the Redskins failed to cover as 9.5-point underdogs.
The Falcons suffered their second loss in as many weeks when the Saints defeated them 35-27 last Monday. Michael Turner rushed for 151 yards on 20 carries and a touchdown as Atlanta covered as 12-point road underdogs.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SPORTSBETTING.com have made the Falcons 10-point favorites over the Redskins in Week 9. The over/under total for this matchup has been set at 41 points.
The Falcons are 5-2 against the spread this year and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games at home. Every game they’ve won this year they’ve covered, so if you like them to win this week (and we don’t know why you wouldn’t given their opponents) then Atlanta will probably cover, too.
The Redskins are going to have a hard time stopping Turner this week, who looked like a different back in Atlanta’s loss to New Orleans than he had all season. He ran with more power, speed and authority and if he can repeat that performance again this Sunday, then the Falcons shouldn’t have any problems disposing of the Redskins.
The key for Atlanta, however, is to get second-year quarterback Matt Ryan back on track. The Falcons would be wise to offer him more max-protection until he gets comfortable in the pocket again, because the past three weeks he has rushed through his reads and hasn’t been as accurate as he was early in the season. If Turner can get the running game going again, then Ryan should feed off that and successful make plays vertically down the field to tight end Tony Gonzalez and receiver Roddy White.
Our free pick for this matchup is the Falcons, who won’t overlook a bad Redskins team considering they badly need a win. Atlanta must keep pace in the NFC playoff hunt, so beating Washington is a must. The Falcons have the superior talent and coaching in this matchup and with Chris Samuels and Chris Cooley out for the Redskins, Atlanta should cruise in this game.
Our prediction for the over/under total in this matchup is for the game to go over 41 points. The Falcons should score close to 30 points on their own and while their defense is improving, a couple of garbage points in the fourth quarter by the Redskins should put the total over. The total has gone over in four of Atlanta’s last six games.
Our NFL Week 9 Free Pick for this matchup is: ATLANTA FALCONS -10 and OVER 46.
409 Washington Redskins +10 Over 41
410 Atlanta Falcons –10 Under 41
Washington is 1-3-3 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
[QB] 09/05/2009 - Colt Brennan IR ( Hamstring )
[DT] 11/01/2009 - Anthony Montgomery "?" Sunday vs. Atlanta ( Knee )
[OG] 09/21/2009 - Randy Thomas IR ( Tricep )
[OL] 11/01/2009 - Chad Rinehart "?" Sunday vs. Atlanta ( Shoulder )
[LB] 11/03/2009 - H.B. Blades expected to miss Sunday vs. Atlanta ( Knee )
[TE] 11/01/2009 - Chris Cooley expected to miss at least 4 weeks ( Ankle )
[OT] 10/27/2009 - Chris Samuels IR ( Neck )
[CB] 11/02/2009 - Byron Westbrook is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs. Atlanta ( Knee )
[S] 10/27/2009 - William Moore IR ( Hamstring )
[WR] 08/05/2009 - Harry Douglas IR ( Leg )
[DT] 09/27/2009 - Peria Jerry IR ( Knee )
[RB] 11/02/2009 - Jerious Norwood "?" Sunday vs. Washington ( Hip )
[CB] 11/04/2009 - Brian Williams IR ( ACL )
[S] 11/02/2009 - Antoine Harris "?" Sunday vs. Washington ( Knee )
[DT] 11/02/2009 - Thomas Johnson "?" Sunday vs. Washington ( Calf )
[RB] 11/02/2009 - Jason Snelling "?" Sunday vs. Washington ( Hamstring )
Posted: 11/8/09 7:10AM ET