Texans vs. Colts Pick
The Indianapolis Colts host their AFC South rivals the Houston Texans in Week 9. Let’s preview Sunday’s matchup and hand out a free pick.
The Texans overcame some early turnover issues to defeat the Colts 31-10 in Week 8. Ryan Moats replaced Steve Slaton (who had some fumbling problems) and went on to rush for 126 yards and three touchdowns on 23 carries, while Matt Schaub threw for 268 yards with two interceptions. Houston easily covered as 3.5-point favorites.
The Colts stayed perfect on the season with an 18-14 win over the 49ers last Sunday. Reggie Wayne caught 12 passes for 147 yards and a touchdown in the win, while Peyton Manning threw for 347 yards and a core. Despite earning the victory, Indianapolis failed to cover as 13-point favorites.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SPORTSBETTING.com have made the Colts 9-point favorites over the Texans in Week 9. The over/under total for this game has been set at 48 points.
The Texans are 10-4-1 against the spread in their last 15 games, but the Colts have equally impressive trends. Indianapolis is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games and is 9-1 straight up against Houston in its last 10 meetings with the Texans.
Some bettors are going to look at this matchup and favor the Texans because they’ve won three in a row and four of their last five, and because the Colts looked mortal last week against the 49ers. But Moats and Slaton won’t have the luxury of facing the league’s worst run defense team this week and the Colts have owned the Texans over the past couple of years.
We fully expect Manning and the offense to rebound from a lackluster showing last Sunday and thump an improving, but still inconsistent Houston defense. Indy’s fast defense should also be able to somewhat contain the high-powered Texan offense as well.
For our free pick in this matchup, we recommend laying the points with the Colts, who should have an easier time dismantling the Texans than people think. We also love the over in this matchup, as the total has gone over in five of Houston’s last five games when playing Indianapolis.
Part with the 9-point odds and take the Colts.
Our NFL Week 9 Free Pick for this matchup is: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS –9 and OVER 48.
407 Houston Texans +9 Over 48
408 Indianapolis Colts –9 Under 48
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games at home
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
[RB] 08/23/2009 - Jeremiah Johnson IR ( Shoulder )
[OG] 09/21/2009 - Chester Pitts IR ( Knee )
[LB] 10/01/2009 - Chaun Thompson IR ( Knee )
[LB] 10/06/2009 - Khary Campbell IR ( Knee )
[TE] 11/03/2009 - Owen Daniels IR ( Knee )
[TE] 11/02/2009 - James Casey expected to miss 1-2 weeks ( Knee )
[WR] 11/04/2009 - Anthony Gonzalez is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs. Houston ( Knee )
[PK] 10/14/2009 - Adam Vinatieri expected to miss up to 6 weeks ( Knee )
[CB] 11/01/2009 - Marlin Jackson "?" Sunday vs. Houston ( Knee )
[RB] 11/01/2009 - Donald Brown "?" Sunday vs. Houston ( Shoulder )
[CB] 11/01/2009 - Kelvin Hayden injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Houston ( Leg )
[LB] 11/04/2009 - Tyjuan Hagler IR ( Bicep )
Posted: 11/8/09 7:15AM ET