Fins at Patriots Pick
AFC East rivals clash in Foxboro on Sunday when the New England Patriots host the Miami Dolphins at 1:00PM ET.
The Dolphins defeated the Jets 30-25 as a 3.5-point underdog in Week 8. Chad Henne threw for 112 yards and a touchdown in the win, but Ted Ginn Jr.’s two kickoff returns for touchdowns were the key to Miami pulling out a victory.
The Patriots had last week off, but defeated the Buccaneers 35-7 in London in Week 7. Tom Brady threw for 308 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions, while Wes Welker caught 10 passes for 107 yards with a touchdown in the win. New England covered as 15.5-point favorites.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SPORTSBETTING.com have made the Patriots 10.5-point favorites over the Dolphins in Week 9. The over/under total for this game has been set at 47 points.
New England is 4-3 against the spread this season, while Miami is 3-4. These two teams have split the recent head to head matchups at five games apiece, and these teams also split in two games last season.
The Dolphins’ Wildcat formation gave the Patriots’ defense fits last year, although Bill Belichick noted earlier this week that he thought New England would be better prepared for the scheme. They better, because they’ll see plenty of Ronnie Brown on Sunday.
The key to the Patriots’ recent success has been Brady, who seems more comfortable than he did earlier in the year and is playing better on a whole. When he’s in a rhythm, the Patriots can almost be unstoppable.
That said, this is a divisional rivalry and 10.5 points is a lot – even with New England being at home. Last year, Miami went into Foxboro and crushed a surprised Patriots team. That won’t happen again this year, but don’t be surprised if this game is close throughout.
The Fins are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games on the road and proved last week that they’re going to be tough to run up the score on. We think Miami is a solid pick at 10.5.
Our free pick for the total is the over in this matchup. The total has gone over in six of New England’s last seven games at home.
Our NFL Week 9 Free Pick for this matchup is: MIAMI DOLPHINS +10.5 and OVER 47.
415 Miami Dolphins +10.5 Over 47
416 New England Patriots –10.5 Under 47
Miami is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games
New England is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Miami
New England is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Miami
[QB] 09/28/2009 - Chad Pennington IR ( Shoulder )
[CB] 10/27/2009 - Will Allen IR ( Knee )
[LB] 11/02/2009 - Channing Crowder is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs. New England ( Shoulder )
[RB] 10/20/2009 - Patrick Cobbs IR ( Knee )
[LB] 08/26/2009 - Tyrone McKenzie IR ( Knee )
[OL] 09/05/2009 - George Bussey IR ( Knee )
[WR] 10/21/2009 - Julian Edelman out indefinitely ( Arm )
[RB] 10/08/2009 - Fred Taylor out at least 6-8 weeks ( Ankle )
[RB] 11/01/2009 - Sammy Morris "?" Sunday vs. Miami ( Knee )
[OT] 11/01/2009 - Matt Light "?" Sunday vs. Miami ( Knee )
[DL] 11/01/2009 - Ty Warren injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Miami ( Ankle )
[DE] 11/03/2009 - Jarvis Green out indefinitely ( Knee )
[DB] 11/04/2009 - Jonathan Wilhite "?" Sunday vs. Miami ( Flu )
Posted: 11/8/09 7:30AM ET