Vikings at Packers Pick
Brett Favre returns to Lambeau Field on Sunday for the first time as a visitor when the Green Bay Packers host the Minnesota Vikings at 4:15PM ET.
Favre and the Vikings suffered their first loss of the season last week in a 27-17 decision in Pittsburgh. Favre threw for 337 yards, but he had a fumble and an interception returned for touchdowns as Minnesota failed to cover as 6-point underdogs. Adrian Peterson rushed for 69 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries in the loss.
The Packers defeated the hapless Browns 31-3 as 9-point favorites in Week 7. Aaron Rodgers threw for 246 yards and three touchdowns for Green Bay, while Ryan Grant rushed for 148 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made the Packers 3-point favorites over the Vikings on Sunday. The over/under total for this game has been set at 47 points.
Even though Favre will get most of the headlines, Peterson is the key for the Vikings in this game. The Packers’ run defense has looked solid recently, including in Green Bay’s loss to Minnesota on Monday Night Football earlier in the year. AP looked like he was going to rack up over 100 yards in that game after a great first quarter, but the Packers contained him the rest of the game.
Unfortunately for them, they also allowed Favre to do whatever he wanted in the pocket. Green Bay didn’t generate any kind of pressure and Favre picked them apart over the middle. We think this time will be different though, as Dom Capers won’t sit back and allow Favre ample time to find his receivers.
We think the Packers will be more aggressive defensively this time around and do a better job offensively of double-teaming defensive end Jared Allen, who had a monster game against them a few weeks ago. Don’t forget that the Vikings are coming off an emotional road loss in Pittsburgh and even though they’ll be plenty up for this divisional matchup, it’s hard to go on the road back-to-back weeks and not suffer any effects.
Our NFL Week 8 Free Pick for this matchup is: GREEN BAY PACKERS -3 and OVER 47.
213 Minnesota Vikings +3 (+160 moneyline) Over 47
214 Green Bay Packers –3 (-180 moneyline) Under 47
Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Minnesota is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Green Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
Antoine Winfield CB Out Week 8 (foot)
Bernard Berrian WR Questionable Week 8 (hamstring)
Jasper Brinkley LB Questionable Week 8 (hamstring)
Percy Harvin WR Questionable Week 8 (illness)
Naufahu Tahi RB Questionable Week 8 (knee)
Brett Favre QB Probable Week 8 (hip)
E.J. Henderson LB Probable Week 8 (knee)
Ben Leber LB Probable Week 8 (calf)
Karl Paymah CB Probable Week 8 (quadricep)
Darius Reynaud WR Probable Week 8 (hamstring)
Green Bay Packers
Korey Hall RB Out Week 8 (calf)
Jordy Nelson WR Out Week 8 (knee)
Jermichael Finley TE Doubtful Week 8 (knee)
Jason Spitz C Doubtful Week 8 (back)
Chad Clifton T Questionable Week 8 (ankle)
Derrick Martin S Questionable Week 8 (hamstring)
Jarius Wynn DE Questionable Week 8 (hamstring)
Clay Matthews LB Probable Week 8 (jaw)
Aaron Rodgers QB Probable Week 8 (foot)
Josh Sitton G Probable Week 8 (hand)
Mark Tauscher T Probable Week 8 (knee)
Charles Woodson CB Probable Week 8 (hip)
Posted: 11/1/09 2:40PM ET