Bears at Falcons Pick
The Sunday night match should be a thrilling one this week as the Atlanta Falcons host the Chicago Bears in a battle of 3-1 teams at the Georgia Dome.
The Bears were off last week, but had won their previous three games heading into the bye. Chicago beat the Lions 48-24 in Week 4 to easily cover the 9.5-point spread. Jay Cutler threw for two touchdowns in the victory.
The Falcons absolutely hammered the 49ers last week, 45-10 in San Francisco. Michael Turner rushed for 97 yards and three touchdowns on 22 carries while Roddy White had a career day in catching eight passes for 210 yards and two touchdowns. The Falcons easily covered the spread as 2.5-point underdogs.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SBGGLOBAL.com have made the Falcons 3-point favorites at home against the Bears on Sunday night. The over/under total for this game has been set at 45.5.
We won’t beat around the bush: We love the over in this game. Matt Ryan and the Falcons are coming off their best offensive performance of the year and will give Chicago’s secondary fits. White and Tony Gonzalez should be mismatches against the Bears’ defensive backs, and Ryan might hit both of them for big plays throughout the game.
It’s the same scenario on the other side of the field, as Cutler should have no problem moving the ball through the air against an inconsistent Falcons’ secondary. Chris Houston has really struggled at times this year, which could mean Devin Hester is in for a big day. If the Falcons can’t generate a pass rush like they did last week against the 49ers, Cutler will pick them apart. John Abraham and Kroy Biermann have to be at their best.
We could see the side going either way in this game and while Chicago is well-rested coming off its bye, we love the Falcons at home. We think Atlanta will jump out to a sizeable lead early and then hold on once Cutler and the Bears made a push in the second half.
We love the over and really like the home favorites as well.
Our NFL Week 6 Free Pick for this matchup is: ATLANTA FALCONS -3 and OVER 45.5.
233 Chicago Bears +3.5 Over 45.5
234 Atlanta Falcons –3.5 Under 45.5
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Hunter Hillenmeyer LB Doubtful Week 6 (rib)
Adrian Peterson RB Doubtful Week 6 (knee)
Anthony Adams DT Questionable Week 6 (toe)
Israel Idonije DT Questionable Week 6 (knee)
Pisa Tinoisamoa LB Questionable Week 6 (knee)
Tommie Harris DT Probable Week 6 (knee)
Antoine Harris S Out Week 6 (knee)
Ovie Mughelli RB Questionable Week 6 (calf)
Brian Williams CB Questionable Week 6 (eye)
Marty Booker WR Probable Week 6 (abdomen)
Jason Elam K Probable Week 6 (left hamstring)
Posted: 10/18/09 5:30PM ET