Saints vs. Patriots Free Pick

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FOXBORO, MA (The Spread) – The Patriots are coming off their first loss of the season – will they bounce back when they host the Saints today at 4:25PM ET?

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NFL Odds: According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Patriots are 1-point favorites over the Saints, while the over/under total is currently sitting at 50.5 points. New Orleans is 5-0 overall and 2-0 on the road, while New England is 4-1 overall and 2-0 at home.

NFL LINEMOVEMENT: The Patriots opened as 3-point favorites but the spread has been bet down below the key number of 3 and is now 1 at most online and Vegas sports books. As for the total, it opened at 50 and has been bet up to 50.5.

NFL PUBLIC BETTING: Of the bets that have been placed on this game, 72% currently favor New Orleans. This information is subject to change, however, so make sure to click on the link for the latest public betting figures.

NFL FREE PICK: Take the over. According to latest NFL trends, the over is 9-2 in the Saints’ last 11 games versus a team with a winning record, 8-3 in their last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game, and 11-5 in their last 16 games following a straight up win. The over is also 4-1 in the Patriots’ last five games in October, 6-2 in their last eight games versus a team with a  winning record and 41-20 in their last 61 games overall. The Saints’ offense is less explosive on the road than when inside the Superdome but the Patriots are banged up defensively and should surrender plenty of points. On the other side, Tom Brady won’t be held to less than 10 points again like he and New England were last week in Cincinnati.

2013 NFL FREE PICK: SAINTS/PATRIOTS OVER 50.5

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