Patriots at Broncos Pick

The undefeated Denver Broncos will get perhaps their biggest test of the young season on Sunday when they host the New England Patriots at 4:15PM ET.

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The Pats improved to 3-1 on the year with a 27-21 victory over the Ravens in Week 4 as 3-point home favorites. Tom Brady threw for 258 yards on 21 of 32 passing and also finished with two touchdown passes in the win.

The Broncos stayed undefeated in 2009 with a 17-10 victory over the Cowboys. Kyle Orton connected with Brandon Marshall on a 51-yard touchdown pass with 1:46 remaining in the game to give Denver the win and a 3-point cover as underdogs.

Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made the Patriots 3.5-point favorites over the Broncos on Sunday. The over/under total for this matchup has been set at 41.

For those that don’t think New England has any issues to resolve, you’re kidding yourself. The Pats have victories over the Falcons and Ravens the past two weeks, but they’ve benefited from some unquestionable calls that have kept drives alive, have gotten them into scoring position or have taken touchdowns off the board for their opponents (see Michael Jenkins’ pass interference call in Week 3 where he and the Pats’ defender were both pushing and shoving while the ball was in the air).

Last week, the Ravens marched up and down the field on the Patriots at will, but just couldn’t convert because of dropped passes or mistakes. The Broncos don’t have the offense the Ravens do, but they should be able to make enough plays with Marshall and rookie Knowshon Moreno (making his first career start on Sunday) to keep the chains moving.

The key is Denver’s defense. If they can continue to play as well as they have and generate pressure on Brady, the Broncos will win this game outright. In fact, New England has struggled while playing in Denver over the years, going 5-15 against the spread in the last 20 games playing in the mile high city.

We love getting the hook in his game and suggest taking the home underdogs in a thriller.

Our NFL Week 5 Free Pick for this matchup is: DENVER BRONCOS +3.5 and OVER 41.

Patriots at Broncos Current Odds

419 New England Patriots –3.5 Over 41

420 Denver Broncos +3.5 Under 41

NFL Week 5 Betting Trends

New England is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Denver is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against New England
Denver is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against New England

NFL Week 5 Injury Report

New England Patriots

Mark LeVoir, T, P-U-P List

Fred Taylor, RB, Missed Thursday Practice (ankle)

Adalius Thomas, LB, Missed Thursday Practice (not injury related)

Nick Kaczur, T, Limited Thursday Practice (ankle)

Jerod Mayo, LB, Limited Thursday Practice (knee)

James Sanders, S, Limited Thursday Practice (shoulder)

Shawn Springs, CB, Limited Thursday Practice (knee)

Wes Welker, WR, Limited Thursday Practice (knee)

Vince Wilfork, DT, Limited Thursday Practice (ankle)

Tom Brady, QB, Full Thursday Practice (right shoulder)

Denver Broncos

No injuries to report.

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Posted: 10/11/09 2:40PM ET

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