NFL Odds & Trends: Week 5 Picks Falcons at 49ers Print
Written by Anthony Rome   
Sunday, 11 October 2009 09:30
NFL Headline News

Falcons at 49ers Pick

One of the more underrated matchups on the Week 5 schedule in the NFL pits the Atlanta Falcons vs. the San Francisco 49ers at 4:05PM ET on Sunday.

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The Falcons had a bye in Week 4 but suffered their first loss of the season at the hands of the Patriots in a 26-10 defeat in Week 3. Matt Ryan threw for 199 yards in the loss as the Falcons failed to cover the 4.5-point spread. Michael Turner rushed for just 56 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries.

The 49ers are coming off a convincing 35-0 win over the Rams as 10-point favorites in Week 5. Shaun Hill was 14-of-24 for 152 yards and threw a pair of touchdown passes in the victory.

Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made the 49ers a 3-point home favorite over the Falcons on Sunday. The over/under total for this matchup has been set at 41.

This will be a great test to see where both of these teams are on the season. The Falcons are coming off a bye so they’ll be well rested, but flying cross-country does them no favors and they’ve had issues running the ball this season.

The Niners will likely load up to stop Turner and Atlanta’s running game, much like opponents have done to the Falcons this season. Ryan has enough weapons to beat them in the passing game, but San Fran’s secondary has been tough.

Offensively, Hill will be counted on to make plays in the passing game, although Glen Coffee is good enough to produce against a suspect Atlanta run defense. If they can establish Coffee early, the Niners will be in business, even without Frank Gore (ankle).

We like the under above all else in this matchup, because we feel both teams will struggle to put up points. We favor San Fran because they’re the home team and matchup well against the Falcons’ offense, but again, we recommend taking the under 41 as the marquee play.

Our NFL Week 5 Free Pick for this matchup is: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS –3 and UNDER 41.

Falcons at 49ers Current Odds

417 Atlanta Falcons +3 Over 41

418 San Francisco 49ers –3 Under 41

NFL Week 5 Betting Trends

Atlanta is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Atlanta's last 23 games on the road
San Francisco is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Atlanta
San Francisco is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Atlanta

NFL Week 5 Injury Report

Atlanta Falcons

Antoine Harris, S, Missed Thursday Practice (knee)

Jason Elam, K, Limited Thursday Practice (left hamstring)

Ovie Mughelli, RB, Full Thursday Practice (hamstring)

San Francisco 49ers

Frank Gore, RB, Out Week 5 (foot, ankle)

Reggie Smith, S, Out Week 5 (groin)

Jeff Ulbrich, LB, Out Week 5 (concussion)

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Posted: 10/11/09 2:30AM ET

 

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